Monday 8 October 2018

Twelve Years: That's All We've Got?

The new UN IPCC report reckons that we have only a few years to get the release of 'greenhouse gases' under control if we want to limit the increase in average global temperature to only 1.5 degrees Centigrade (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report). It is interesting that the summary (frightening enough) reportedly doesn't emphasise issues like the possibility of migration-related 'wars' triggered by climate change; the loss of virtually all corals in the oceans or the loss of many important pollinators on land (not to mention the opening up of the Amazon rainforest to 'agribusiness' by a right-wing Brazilian president). Although the scientists generating the report appear to think the changes are doable, by a combination of largely ceasing to use hydrocarbons for electricity generation and transport; planting areas to increase the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide and (as yet un-established) methods of industrially removing the gas from the atmosphere, I am rather more pessimistic. I used to do research on populations of animals and one of the ideas developed by Professor V.C. Wynne-Edwards, around at that time, was so-called 'group selection'. Here, inbuilt behavioural and physiological mechanisms limited population growth, when it looked potentially damaging to the species. The problem with the idea was that developing any such  such 'altruistic' mechanism in individuals could not occur by natural selection. All species (including our own?) appear to be essentially 'selfish', being driven to actions by what benefits us or our close relatives. I rather suspect that a combination of self interest and procrastination will greatly limit our species' ability to collectively do the right thing for humankind and the planet.  

1 comment:

Kate said...

Visiting you after a long absence. But you are still writing great thought-provoking posts, I see.
I anticipate huge species extinctions whichever. But remain optimistic. Sometimes. I have a dim hope that as we move towards the 'train-wreck' scenario, and people hear the bells and sirens, they will set aside sordid 'small' worries (like nowhere to live Kate??) and begin to cooperate.
It's like trying to slow a huge machine with lots of inertia that comes from an ecology-ignoring global economic system, however.

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