Eat Out to Help Spread?

Fetzer, an economist at Warwick University, has attempted to link the UK Treasury's 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme in England and the spread of Covid-19 infections ( https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/treasury-rejects-theory-eat-out-to-help-out-caused-rise-in-covid). The scheme was an attempt to boost the hospitality sector and operated in August, from Monday to Wednesday, paying half the costs of meals and soft drinks. Fetzer noted that infections spread rapidly in areas with lots of participating restaurants but slowed there, after the scheme ended. He also looked at local rainfall patterns. When it rained heavily at lunch or dinner times on Monday to Wenesday, fewer people ate out and there was a lower infection rate. This pattern was not evident when it rained at these same times, on days of the week when the scheme was not operating. Fetzer's hypothesis (and it is a hypothesis rather than a theory) is, that although the scheme delivered a short-term boost, by accounting for up to 20% of the new clusters across the summer, it actually caused economic damage to the hospitality sector. The Treasury have 'angrily' rejected Fetzer's conclusions, noting that other countries have also seen an 'uptick' in infections. This is not, however, much of an argument, as these other countries (especially, if highly dependent on tourism) have also been trying to boost their hospitality sectors. I (like some quoted economists, who are more qualified in this area than I), believe that Fetzer's ideas deserve more detailed consideration. The usefulness of a scheme is surely not only judged on its having a feel good factor!

Princes of Plastic

It is generally assumed that Asian countries are the worst plastic waste polluters of the oceans. A new study, using the figure for 2016, has shown, however, that the US and the UK achieve top ranking on this measure (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/30/us-and-uk-citizens-are-worlds-biggest-sources-of-plastic-waste-study). This is because around 50% of their 'recycled' plastic waste is exported to other countries, where it is dumped or not disposed of adequately. For example, the US with 4% of the world's population, generates 17% of its plastic waste. As the authors of the report state, responsibility for plastic waste does not disappear, as it crosses your border!

Leaping Back into the UK Fauna

The Great fox spider (the picture is actually a relative, rather than the real thing) is a large (5cm) member of the wolf spider group that had been assumed to be extinct in the UK for 27 years ( https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/31/huge-spider-assumed-extinct-in-britain-discovered-on-mod-site-aoe). Wolf spiders dont make webs but act as ambush predators, leaping on their prey (e.g. beetles and other spiders). They then inject venom and liquidise the prey's contents before sucking it dry. The Great fox spider hunts at night in rough, sandy areas, which is a possible reason why it has been so elusive. The species was recorded, in 2020, on Ministry of Defence land used for training purposes. Such locations, where access by humans is limited and agriculture banned, can provide surprisingly good protections for rare species.

Peacock Plague

New Zealand (especially the North Island) appears to be having problems with Jade and green peafowl. These birds, like many problematic species, were introduced for entirely decorative reasons. Peafowl have now become feral.(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/no-predators-plenty-to-eat-new-zealand-struggles-with-plague-of-peacocks). As they lack predators (due largely to programmes to eliminate wild ferrets, stoats and rats) and are surrounded by mountains of food (farmers provide them with clover, corn and maize), their numbers have rocketed. Peafowl are now regarded as a major pest by farmers. I suspect that the raucous calls of the Peacock drives them to distraction. Most problematic alien species of animals and plants are introduced by 'fanciers' and gardeners.

Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds

Dale Vince, the owner of Ecotricity, claims to have created a process in Stroud, that will make diamonds from atmospheric carbon dioxide (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/30/ecotricity-founder-to-grow-diamonds-made-entirely-from-the-sky). It is, of course, going to be the case that the diamonds, if made, will be of industrial (they are used in cutting and other processes) rather than gemstone quality. Vince, a green energy multi-millionaire, points out that an added bonus of this 'sky mining' is that it will remove some of the climate-changing greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. This will be, however, only a tiny proportion of the amount we need to eliminate. We need more than a sky miner to solve our problems.

Ancient and Modern?

It there is one thing that everyone agrees on about Covid-19, it's that the likely outcome of an infection for older people is generally much worse than that of their younger counterparts. They often have more extreme symptoms and infection is more likely to end in death. In an opinion piece, Dorothy Byrne (a spring chicken, at 68), has posed the question "Why should I have to lie to get proper Covid treatment?" (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/28/covid-england-older-people-care-health-service). She points to examples where older people appear to have been discriminated against by the NHS in England. This includes the claim that some hospitals in Liverpool, London and Manchester toyed with applying an age-based scoring system to decide whether patients could receive (the limited) available life-saving treatment. The percentage of Covid-19 patients, aged 60 and more, at the height of the first wave, who received intensive care, reportedly fell by almost 50%. The Department of Health claimed that the age-based scoring system was 'never implemented'. The perception (whether 'false' or not) persists, even in the opinions of some senior health professionals. Older people (who, naturally accumulate more ailments) are also, reportedly missing out on life-saving surgery and treatment for other medical conditions in the pandemic-disrupted NHS. Again, this appears to be to a greater extent, than is seen in younger cohorts. Much as I appreciate the NHS, I have never found them to be especially good, at explaining to patients or their families, the reasons why certain treatments may or may not be available (I'm sure that this can be a difficult conversation). Even finding out what is happening next can be difficult at the best of times! It seems to me, that we have created a potentially toxic mix, when sections of the group most vulnerable to Covid-19 are coming to feel that they might be 'disposable' in terms of NHS treatment.

Dogged

Genetic studies on the remains of dogs (from Europe, the near East and Siberia) appear to have established that, at the time of the last ice-Age (11,000 years ago), there were 5 genetically distinct types of dogs (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/five-distinct-types-dog-existed-end-last-ice-age-study-finds). All 5 appear to have been evolved from a common ancestor, a domesticated wolf-type animal. Comparisons with the genes of modern dog varieties, also suggest that all European breeds (like German shepherds) are 50:50 crosses of a form from the Levant and one from Northern Europe. Who do they think they are?

Down the Pan?

On the one hand, it is good that Amazon (the world's largest retailer) seems to want to encourage people to select products that don't add to the planet's environmental problems. They appear to be trying to do this, by awarding some their available products Amazon's Climate Pledge Friendly badge (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/28/amazon-removes-eco-badge-from-flushable-wipes-and-donald-trump-toilet-paper). On the other hand, some of the company's initial choices certainly appear to be examples of 'greenwashing'. It is difficult to see, for example, why flushable wipes and novelty Donald Trump toilet paper ever received eco-sustainability badges (since removed). If Amazon intends to continue with its scheme, I think they need to consult more widely about the criteria used to 'earn' the badge. There are many organisations that can supply the, often complex, backgrounds to products and their packaging. There is, of course, a natural tension between sales and sustainability! Maximising sales doesn't help the planet.

It Got Up and Went!

A study by Norwegian Psychologist Sigmundsson has looked at how passion, resilience and mindset evolve in sporting folk between the ages of 14 and 77 (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-athletes-way/202010/passion-grit-and-can-do-attitude-keep-the-spark-lit#:~:text=This%20study%20%28Sigmundsson%2C%202020%29%20from%20the%20Norwegian%20University,January%202021%20issue%20of%20New%20Ideas%20in%20Psychology.). He basically found his subjects were 'washed up' by the age of 54, as passion,'grit' and 'can do attitude' declined, along with a willingness to try new experiences. Although one might expect an early decline in athletes (it's a young person's sport), it is likely that the phenomenon will apply (albeit perhaps more slowly, I hope) to all sectors of life. This means that the elderly are likely to find it particularly difficult to deal with pandemic-related lockdowns and the other stresses produced by Covid-19.

Oh- The Sauce Involved!

It's coming to something when the UK government is so desperate for a 'good news' story that the Minister responsible reveals her ignorance to the whole world (https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/twitter-users-bash-department-of-trade-over-soy-sauce-tweet-4559264). Apparently 'The Great British Bake Off' (a popular TV cooking competition) had a Japan-inspired week. Following that, Liz Truss (Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade) tweeted that, thanks to the recently-signed (in anticipation of Brexit) trade deal between the UK and Japan, soy sauce (one of the ingredients used by the bakers) would be cheaper. Unfortunately, most of the soy sauce (more commonly found as a Chinese condiment) imported to the UK, is produced in the Netherlands. I think it's what is called 'shooting yourself in the foot'

When Is a Protection No Protection?

The Goodwin sands is a 16k long sandbank lying 9.7k off the Deal coast in Kent. It was granted Marine Protected Area status due to its extraordinary archeological (including ship wrecks and aircraft) and ecological importance. Now, however, the Marine Management Organisation have approved plans to dredge millions of tonnes of sand and gravel from the structure, to be used to build extensions to the nearby port of Dover (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/29/plans-to-dredge-notorious-ship-swallower-sandbank-condemned). This very invasive extraction process will have a decimating effect on many of the small organisms (e.g. marine worms, echinoderms sand eels and fish larvae) that inhabit the sandbank and the animals that depend on them (larger fish, birds and marine mammals). The profits will go to the Crown who, for historical reasons, own most such marine locations. This is yet another confirmation that ecological 'protections' are much too easily over-ridden by financial and political considerations in this country.

Don't Bank on It!

It is reported that, in 2019, the world's 50 largest banks lent $2.6tn to support projects that would inevitably cause ecosystem and wildlife destruction (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2020/oct/28/the-worlds-banks-must-start-to-value-nature-and-stop-paying-for-its-destruction-aoe). This is in spite of undertakings in most countries where the banks are based to attempt to check the worrying declines in biodiversity seen over the planet. Most of the bank-financed projects involved agricultural developments and forestry. Scientists are now saying that these financial institutions must consider the impacts on biodiversity, when deciding which projects to finance. It seems a not unreasonable request.

Would Providing Skills Make Social Media Less Polarising?

I have already posted on Carlo Rovelli's advocating, that all primary school children, should be taught the basics (yet another thing for the 'under-employed' teachers to do!) of probability theory and statistics to help them make sense of the digital world, to which they will inevitably be exposed. I professed doubts at the time of posting, and think that new data about the online spread of QAnon ideas in the UK (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/27/how-qanons-conspiracies-gained-traction-uk-social-media), suggests that wider statistical competence will do little to save us. Clearly, the main problem with social media platforms is that they are designed (largely for advertising purposes) to divide us into 'camps'. Users of the platforms are regularly exposed only to the ideas of others who are like-minded. One rarely gets exposed to material that is fundamentally at odds with our own values and preferences (and if we are, we can always block or 'unfriend' them). This is a situation in which confirmation bias (where one tends to uncritically accept information that supports our own ideas and to reject or minimise the importance of findings that run counter), runs riot. I am really not sure what we can do about this. Teaching primary school kids about confirmation bias would a) be very difficult and b) likely to lead to accusations of 'brain washing'. I am also sure that the owners of social media platforms a) are happy with the status quo as it maximises their finances, b) would resist attempts to widen the range of viewpoints presented to individuals as this would act as a disincentive to participation and c) would not like to be told how to reduce confirmation bias. Although increasing numbers of people get their 'news' from social media (rather than newspapers or radio/TV), they seem to regard participation as entertainment rather than educational. Their views are also honed via these self-selected platforms, so it is hardly remarkable, that many groups (with good or bad intentions), increasingly seek to identify folk who are amenable to their arguments and focus on sections of these 'communities' to push their ideas. It's all a bit cult-like! I suspect, however, that the vast majority of platform users, don't care.

Reefer

It's amazing what can turn up even in well-visited areas. A 3D seabed mapping exercise has identified a new structure 130k off Cape York and Australia's Great Barrier Reef (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/28/scientists-discover-500-metre-tall-skyscraper-reef-at-australias-great-barrier-reef). This is a detached reef that is 1.5k at the base but then rises, to within 40m of the sea surface, in a thin shaft that is 500m tall. This makes it the same height as the Empire State Building in New York. The shaft must have existed, before being colonised by corals, as these organisms would not have been able to grow at the base.

Arctic Anguish

It appears that methane is now being rapidly released from the ice of the East Siberian coastal region (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find). This release of the potent 'greenhouse gas' in the Laptev sea (it is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide) is very worrying. It may indicate that a tipping point has already been crossed, making it increasingly difficult to control climate change.

Sea-Weeding Comes of Age

The Victorian era 'fad' of 'sea-weeding' (as practised by Queen Victoria herself) has now been revealed as a potential 'window' on to the past (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/27/what-victorian-era-seaweed-pressings-reveal-about-our-changing-seas). The algae were collected, beautifully arranged on white cards and labelled with details of the time and location of their being collected by amateur enthusiasts. The fad even travelled to the coast of California. Workers at Monterey Bay aquarium's Ocean Memory Lab have now used surviving collections (some more than 140 years old) to monitor changes in the sea that pre-date the start of oceanographic records. For example, preserved samples of the alga Gelidium revealed changes in nitrogen isotopes that matched upwelling in California, a phenomenon that results in declining sardine populations. It's amazing where you can get information from if you employ modern technologies.

A Vaccine Against Over-Expectations?

It is encouraging that the development of AZD1222 (the vaccine being trialled by Oxford University and AstraZeneca) is looking positive but these are still early days (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/27/covid-vaccine-uk-oxford-university-astrazeneca-works-in-all-ages-trials-suggest). The actual results have not yet been published but the vaccine is said to generate an antibody response in all age groups trialled thus far, including a category of 'ancients' (over 56). Although a few tests have been done in the over 70s, they currently seem to be quite limited. The more mature categories encouragingly showed a low incidence of side-effects. Older people (70+), with their declining immune systems, should be a main focus for any vaccination programme, as this is where most of the Covid-19 deaths have been concentrated. If all goes well, the vaccine might be 'wheeled out' in 2021 (an early Christmas present seems less likely). There is, of course, no guarantee that vaccine-induced elevations of antibodies will give long-term protection against an infections with sars Covid2. We just have to wait and see.

Ephemeral Immunity?

A study carried out by Imperial College London has tracked the levels of antibodies in the bloods of 365,000 randomly-selected adults since the first wave (March-April) of the pandemic in the UK (https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-britain-antibody/uk-study-finds-evidence-of-waning-antibody-immunity-to-covid-19-over-time-idUKL8N2HH5F1). The subjects were sent finger-prick tests to carry out on themselves at home. One cannot be too confident about all the results in such cases (there may be false positives and false negatives). They found that 6% of the population had antibodies at the end of June but this declined to 4.4%, after lockdown, in September. They interpreted this as suggesting that the protective blood antibody response (at least from an infection) can be relatively short-lived. There were some additional indications e.g. younger age groups and those with symptoms appeared to have longer-lasting antibody levels than older or asymptomatic counterparts. Healthcare workers also showed little evidence of a decline due, they suggested, to repeated exposure to the virus. The results seem to broadly chime with the experience seen in Manaus (Brazil), where there was little evidence of 'herd immunity', in a widely-infected, young population. Studies in Sweden (with no lockdown), have also suggested that blood antibodies are not very persistent. The very fact that there are increasing reports of reinfections, by this virus, also supports the view (along with the disappointing results for treatments with 'convalescent plasma'). Antibodies are, of course, not the whole story, as activated T and B cells may stilloffer some protection from the virus. It is also possible that some vaccines might be able to generate a longer-lasting response than an actual infection. One thing is, however, certain, namely that the immune respose to sars covid2 is complex and it is unlikely that there will be simple protections.

Statistical Duncedom?

Physicist Carlo Rovelli has opined that 'statistical illiteracy' can be fatal in a pandemic (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/26/statistical-illiteracy-pandemic-numbers-interpret). He suggests that 'most' adults have a vague (I would say 'very vague'at best) understanding of averages, variability and correlations to help them deal with the uncertainties of life but I'm not so sure. Otherwise, no one would pay to enter the National Lottery (you might have to be'in it, to win it' but your chances of winning are similar to the probability of being hit by a meteorite!). In deed, all forms of commercial gambling depend on the odds being heavily stacked against the punter. Yet, in the advertising, the 'customer' (and there are many) is exhorted to use their special knowledge or 'smarts' to place a bet. And how do we explain the attractions of conspiracy 'theories', where occassional coincidences are often waved around as categorical 'proof'? Carlo suggests that things could be improved by teaching primary school children the fundamental ideas of probability theory and statistics, before honing these topics at secondary school. The trouble is that, in this brave new world, the general public are not actually allowed to work out the probabilities for themselves (even if they are competent to do so). Directives come down from on high, often from people who seem to be statistical illiterates themselves. Furthermore, statistics are often presented to the public, at present, in ways that suit the policy directors (presumably on the grounds that we 'need' highly simplified accounts or 'truths'). If the general public got better at statistics, they might argue back!

The Missing Lynx

There were very few Iberian lynx on the Iberian peninsula in the 1970s after a combination of human persecution and a shortage of their preferred rabbit prey (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/25/the-lynx-effect-iberian-cat-claws-its-way-back-from-brink-of-extinction). The situation is much more rosy now, after several decades of conservation and reintroductions. In deed, numbers have recently rocketed in Spain from 94 in 2002 to 855 in 2020. Tracking these shy, crepuscular animals has also greatly improved, aided by the use of camera traps. It would be nice to get them back in some defined UK locations as they are a good apex predator but are not especially dangerous to humans and their domestic animals.

Assault and Batteries

The Environmental Services Association (ESA) have urged people not to dispose of batteries with their general rubbish (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/26/zombie-batteries-causing-hundreds-of-waste-fires-experts-warn). General rubbish is crushed, releasing the contents of these items (something which is especially problematic in the case of lithium ion and nickel-metal varieties). The ESA suggest that these 'zombie batteries' have been responsible for 250 fires in recycling and waste facility locations across the UK in the year ending March 2020. Most supermarkets and shops offer collect 'dud' batteries (they also contain toxins) for separate processing. It's not too much to ask!

Educating the Isolated?

You sometimes get the impression that this UK government has little idea how proportions of its population have to live. The Covid-19 pandemic means that children, who have been in contact with someone (often a classmate) testing positive for the virus, are sent home to 'self-isolate'. This of course interferes with the learning process. An edict has now appear for English schools, making it 'illegal' (but with no indication of who is to 'police' this) for schools not to provide 'high quality', daily work assignments for each self-isolating child. Again, there is little direction of who, in the already-stretched schools, should be doing this. Even worse, there are some children (the most educationally disadvantaged), whose parents (even before lockdown) couldn't afford laptops, home broadband or even substantial credits for mobile telephones (https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/20/how-can-englands-schools-educate-isolating-children-if-families-cant-afford-wifi). These would, of course, be essential items needed for the child to work on the demanded high quality video provision. This is from the same government that reneged on its promise, early in the pandemic, to greatly increase the supply of school laptops. Note to ministers: not everyone goes to a public school! There is little point in demanding material, if some of the children can't access it.

Climate Change Has Spoilt the Weather For Me!

I appreciate only too well that a single event doesn't mean a trend (as we say "One swallow doesn't make a Spring"). But I, like many Brits, used to glorify in our weather. You could, sometimes, have all four seasons in a single day and weather was the 'go-to topic' for small talk. I now find, however, that I can't experience a gloriously warm and sunny day without pondering on climate change. Is it the start of a trend and does it mean we have passed a tipping point? The atypical used to be fun, now it's (possibly) scary!

Low Traffic Neighbourhoods: Need to be Smart but Should Not Be 'Shouted Down'

There has been lots of debate about Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs) where cars are discouraged and walking/cycling boosted. Some of the objectors have claimed (sometimes with little evidence) that their creation simply moves congestion to other streets, has negative effects on local commerce and/or causes delays in the arrivals of emergency vehicles. There is no doubt, however, that we need to make our streets safer, improve opportunities for healthy exercise and reduce the levels of harmful (to human health and to the planet's climate) emissions into the atmosphere. Well-located and well-designed LTNs can make really positive contributions. There have, however, been reports of some local planners 'watering down' or even abandoning the creation of LTNs in their areas, after bouts of high-volume 'outrage' from 'residents'. A recent report ( https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2020/oct/22/despite-a-loud-opposing-minority-low-traffic-neighbourhoods-are-increasingly-popular), suggests that LTNs are actually supported by a majority of people. It seems to me, that LTNs are a good concept (we really need to discourage short, low occupancy car trips) but that the planners have to be careful and seen to be widely-consulting in their plans (some people can neither walk nor cycle). They should not, however, give too much prominence to the loudest voices!

Driving Us Round the Bend?

A study on UK adults has shown that relatively modest increases in air pollution from vehicles, can markedly increase the incidence of common mental disorders in UK adults (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/24/small-increases-in-air-pollution-linked-to-rise-in-depression-finds-study). The mental disorders most commonly implicated in these changes were anxiety and depression. It was found that increasing nitrogen dioxide (a by-product of using diesel fuel) generated a 39% increase in mental disorders. Particulates (also from burning fuel but added to by dust from brake linings and tyres) was linked to an 18% increase in mental health problems. Pretty obviously, the people most at risk are those that live or work by busy roads. The costs of generated mental health problems need to be factored into the costs of road building schemes. A transition to electric cars whilst removing the nitrogen dioxide, wouldn't eliminate the particulates.

Glitterati

Adrienne Matei is right in claiming that glitter (a mix of aluminium and plastics) gets everywhere (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/22/glitter-environment-microplastics-hazard). She is also right in claiming that it's 'small beer' in relation to the enormous mass of microplastics (from degraded plastics, car tyres, car brake linings, tea bags, preparation of formula feeds for babies etc, etc). Microplastics are now everywhere on the planet and coming to a food chain near you. The thing about glitter, however, that it is completely frivolous stuff. It's not even a by-product of a half-way useful activity. Clearly, we need to do something urgently about microplastics, in general but it is at least a start, that several UK supermarkets have now banned glitter from their own-brand Christmas sales. I expect that this is more an easy way to signal their 'greenness' to their customers, rather an all-out attack on microplastic pollution.

Chimp Off the Old Block?

A very substantial study suggests that our closest living relatives, the Common chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), behave in a very human way, as they enter old age (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/22/chimps-pare-down-their-social-circle-in-later-years-study). As their youthful aggressiveness declines, they seem to hang around with old cronies, at the expense of interacting with a wider circle of primates in the social group. Chimpanzees presumably don't have a perception of their eventual end. It is consequently suggested that this phenomenon occurs because, as males age, they compete less for mates and concentrate on close, reciprocal relationships with trusted partners. It is likely that the behaviour also arose in humans before we became capable of fixating on future events. But, then again, it could just be more pleasant and less demanding, as your energy declines, to hang around with old 'friends'.

Lockdown Lethargy?

Sport England Active Lives have done a survey of 190,000 people. They report, that the first Covid-19 lockdown, resulted in an estimated (for England as a whole) 12 million people taking less than 30 minutes of exercise per week between March and May 2020 (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8871551/Englands-Covid-19-lockdown-led-12million-adults-doing-no-exercise-poll-claims.html). One always has to be a bit careful about interpreting such results, as self-reports are a notoriously unreliable measure. Some of the respondants may not have normally engaged in exercise with or without a lockdown. Others may under or over-estimate their activity levels. Having said that, exercise is important for both physical and mental health (so a lack is serious). There was also evidence that different ethnic and socio-economic groups fared differently, depending on their circumstances (they may even misclassify exercise). I suspect that many of the respondants who would normally have taken regular exercise over this period, were people who would have used gyms or swimming pools and/or have participated in team sports. I am surprised that people did not work harder to keep gyms and swimming pools (the water is chlorinated!) accessible. It's much easier to exercise if you have a gym in your basement than if you live on the 20th floor of a high-rise. I hope that exercise will be encouraged in any subsequent curtailing of freedoms.

Amsterdam Takes a Punt on an Alien

There are many examples (e.g. the Cane toad, the Indian mongoose) of alien introductions, intended as agents of biocontrol, going wrong. So, it is with some trepidation that I read that Amsterdam is trying to 'cure' its problem with Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica) by changing the regulations to allow a mass release of alien Japanese knotweed psyllids (Aphalara itadori). Japanese knotweed, itself, was originally introduced by gardeners but now runs riot in many parts of Europe, where it cracks foundations and roads, as it grows. It also overshadows and kills natural vegetation, has no local herbivores and can rapidly invade new areas by sections of root or rhisomes left in the soil. The hope is that the sap-sucking 'fleas' will reduce the growth of Japanese knotweed and might even kill some young shoots (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/amsterdam-releases-leaf-fleas-halt-japanese-knotweed-growth). All this sounds a bit optimistic (knotweed is very resistant) to me and the possibility remains that the psyllids will, in time, turn their attentions to other plants (I'm sure that tests have been carried out but the Dutch have a very wide array of crops and the psyllids might well be here for the long term).

Another 'Cure' Not Looking Too Hot?

A lot of hope has been invested in the possibility of using 'convalescent plasma' to treat people with severe Covid-19 infections. 'Convalescent plasma' is the antibody-containing blood minus the cells (that could cause reactions) of people who have recovered from an infection with Covid-19. A study, published in the British Medical Journal, was carried out in India on more than 460 adults with 'moderate' infections ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/23/covid-19-blood-plasma-therapy-has-limited-effect-study-finds) A half of the cohort received two transfusions of 'convalescent plasma' whereas the 'controls' only received the same care (it would have been more accurate to give them two transfusions of plasma from people who had not had a Covid-19 infection). The transfusions, in this study, did not appear to reduce deaths or halt the progression of the disease to 'severe'. There was a suggestion (although it is difficult to work out whether this is, in any sense, more than an impression) that the plasma treatment helped respiration and reduced feelings of fatigue. The study does not, however, suggest that treatment with antibodies is a 'game changer'.

Seeing the Changes 1500

Yet another fungal platoon in Loughor.

Life With an Ocean Haze?

Shipping and aviation transport (of people and materials) have, thus far, largely escaped impositions of emissions targets. Shipping, currently accounts for around 2.5% of the planet's annual, global carbon dioxide release (equivalent to 1bn tonnes of the gas or 2x the UK's total output). Things appear to be, belatedly (due to Corona virus-related delays), happening with the London-based International Marine Organisation (IMO) now aiming to reduce emissions from shipping by 'peaking as soon as possible' and then achieving a 40% reduction (from the peak, whatever that turns out to be) by 2030 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/23/green-groups-condemn-proposals-to-cut-shipping-emissions). As one might expect, this has been applauded by industry bodies like the International Chamber of Shipping but condemned by environmental organisations like the Clean Shipping Coalition. The latter don't think that the IMO proposals accord, evenly remotely, with the Paris agreement on emissions. If we are really going to get worldwide limits to greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant climate change, we can't go on having aviation and shipping treated largely as if they are independent of the countries that own and use them.

Squids In!

There are reports of groups of 30 Chinese squid-catching boats plus refuelling and refrigeration ships spending months at sea off the coast of Peru (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/21/china-squid-fleet-peru-coastguard-fishing). The boats are after Giant squid, that they attract to the surface at night using powerful lights. The hapless but intelligent Cephalopods are grabbed by mechanical arms on the boats and hacked up so they can be stored on the refrigerated ship. It seems that the fleet frequently illegally strays into Peruvian waters. This is clearly not an activity that is, in any sense, sustainable.

Red Oktober

I think we can safely say that the climate change is well underway. It's late October and, for the first time since records began, the waters of the Laptev Sea in the Siberian Arctic, are still free of ice ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/alarm-as-arctic-sea-ice-not-yet-freezing-at-latest-date-on-record). The fear is that this delay will have 'knock on' effects on the rest of the Arctic. So, more hydrochemical extraction and more melting (along with less solar energy reflected back into space).

Seeing the Changes 1499

Excellent conditions for fungi in Loughor!

Getting Real About Vaccination?

David Salisbury has given a timely warning for us not to get our hopes up too high on hearing news that a Covid-19 vaccine might be available by 'Christmas', 'January' or 'Spring' (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection). As he points out, no vaccine is a 100% effective (and it has been claimed that 50% effectiveness might be deemed 'acceptable' for the Covid-19 version). Protection afforded is a product of the proportion of the population vaccinated and the vaccine's effectiveness. Salisbury also illustrates (using figures from the programmes used to deal with seasonal 'flu and meningitis), that giving vaccines only to 'at risk' groups (as is currently planned for Covid-19) neither fully protects that group nor does anything to eliminate the disease-causing agent from the population. He makes it clear, that we will only get back to anything like normality if a) the vaccine is very effective and b) all age and risk groups are vaccinated. Salisbury points out, that getting young people (who are not likely to be personally imperilled by a Covid-19 infection), vaccinated might be difficult (they would be doing this for the benefit of others rather than themselves). I suppose that I ought to add the rider that the growing antivaxx movement will make getting anything like 100% uptake very difficult (the UK has one of the best take-ups of the seasonal 'flu vaccine for over 65 year olds but this is still only around 75%).

Spread of Weird in the UK

I find it somewhat scary, as I had thought that QAnon, was a fringe American phenomenon. It seems, however, that 25% of a group of British people polled believed, in at least some, of the QAnon claims (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/22/one-in-four-britons-believe-in-qanon-linked-theories-survey). I can't stop myself from initially, pedantically saying, that it is wrong to describe the QAnon postulates as 'theories'. Something only becomes a theory (rather than a hypothesis), when it is testable, is tested and is subsequently supported by most people who are knowledgeable in that area! Apparently, there is wide belief, in this country in the existence of secret (Satanic?) cults controlling aspects of our lives (including being involved in child abuse). 17% of people questioned, believed that Covid-19 had been deliberately released, a figure rising to 35% amongst 18-24 year olds. I would just comment that, even if this was true, it seems impossible to confirm as fact by tests. All the conspiracy 'theories' seem to do, is drive people apart and make it less likely that they will do things for the 'common good' (something that will be needed if and when a vaccine for Covid-19 becomes available). It is profoundly worrying that the younger age group are seemingly more believing of weird claims but it could be that this cohort is more likely to be exposed to them online?

The Pandemic is Ushering in the Robots?

The World Economic Forum reckons that the covid-19 pandemic is speeding up the replacement, by machines, of around 20 million factory jobs world-wide (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54622189). They predict that most of these losses occur by 2025. Unremarkably, the sectors that appear most at risk from automation, are routine or manual activities in administration and data processing. The Forum think that the losses could be somewhat counter-balanced by the creation of new jobs in care, big data and the green economy. As these are dependent on different skill sets, they suggest that inequality will be substantially worsened. I suspect that the transition will not be easy, as many people have been pushed into economic crisis mode, by the virus.

The Last Resort

Unfortunately, I suspect that it's already no contest. The Swanscombe Peninsula, in Kent, is currently home to almost 2000 species of invertebrates, 250 of which are of conservation concern. There are plans, however, to build a theme park (the London Resort) in this locations, featuring 'attractions' from the BBC, ITV and cinema (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/21/plans-london-resort-theme-park-kent-marsh-swanscombe-dismay-conservationists). 'Bugs' rarely get a look in, when money-making enterprises with associated 'jobs' are put on the table.

London at the Top

There are always some competitions that you would prefer not to win. A Delft University study, based on data obtained in 2018, looked at the effects of vehicle-generated air pollution on the health costs to the populations of more than 430 cities in the EU, UK, Norway and Switzerland (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/21/london-the-worst-city-in-europe-for-health-costs-from-air-pollution). Londoners turned out to pay the most for air pollution and Manchester came in at number 15. This is, in spite of people knowing for decades, that such air pollution has profound negative effects on respiratory and cardiac health in people (and their associated animals). The effects are even more striking in children, whose schools are commonly sited near busy roads. There is even evidence that babies in the womb can receive particulates via the placenta. We have also recently seen that vehicular air pollution intensifies the medical problems associated with a Covid-19 infection. Pollution levels have frequently exceeded EU legal limits in London, with little being done to correct this situation. It makes you wonder (previous blog post) why the Alliance of British Drivers is being asked to give 'evidence' to the Commons Transport Committee, when they dismiss the health impact of vehicle pollution as 'scaremongering'. If it's 'scaremongering', it's certainly expensive 'scaremongering'!

Tail Wagging the Dog (to Death)?

I hope it's only being done for 'completion's sake' but it seems distinctly weird that the UK's Commons Transport Committee is to take 'evidence' from the Alliance of British Drivers (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/21/climate-science-deniers-to-give-road-safety-evidence-to-mps). The Alliance is a tiny (in terms of the actual number of British drivers) campaign group, that describes human-created global warming as a 'myth' and the negative health impacts of vehicle pollution as 'scaremongering'. Their stated priorities are to raise the speed limits for cars and to reduce the numbers of cycle lanes. You almost couldn't make it up. It's a bit like getting flat Earth folk to give evidence on global travel.

Keep on Running

Yet another one bites the dust! It seems that Spencer Davis (Swansea-born leader of the Spencer Davis Group of the mid-1960's) has died in hospital, aged 81, whilst being treated for 'pneumonia' (https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/oct/20/spencer-davis-frontman-spencer-davis-group-dies-aged-81). My personal main recollection is that their hit 'Keep on Running' always used to be played repeatly at marathons and half-marathons in the UK jogging boom of the 1970's and 80's. It's a good pace-setter!

US Babies on the Bottle

It seems that formula, bottle-fed babies, in many parts of the USA, have an additional problem to the hoards of micro and nano-plastics they will consume with their feed. The water, in around 80% of US homes, is said to contain detectable levels of lead (presumably from aging piping). It has long been established that this metal has a profound negative effect on the development of the nervous system in babies (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/20/led-exposure-bottle-fed-babies-black-infants-study). People have long worried about the levels of lead in the water supplies of Flint (Michigan) but the problem has not been solved here for all. New Orleans has 80% of its homes with detectable lead in the drinking water. One half of these have values that exceed the levels to which developing children should be exposed. Unsurprisingly, many of the locations with the highest lead values in tap water, are areas where people from poorer, ethnic minorities have to live. Of course, even if the babies in these locations are breast-fed, they will be picking up lead from the water that their mothers drink. It is decades since they stopped (on health grounds) using lead products as 'anti-knocking' agents in gasoline. It is remarkable that the same attention hasn't been directed to reducing lead in drinking water.

Every Little (Self?) Helps?

The ride-hailing firm Uber is reportedly set to pledge £5m to help provide electricity charging point infrastructure, by 2023, in some of the poorest parts of London (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/19/uber-pledges-5m-toward-electric-vehicle-charging-points-in-london). They admit that this will be a tiny fraction of the money required to make the Capital more electric car-friendly. They note, however, that many of their drivers come from the poorer areas of the city, like Newham and Tower Hamlets. Those areas currently have very few charging points for electric vehicles (although Uber intends to encourage the use of such cars). Uber don't recruit many drivers from Kensington and Westminster, even though they are relately well provisioned. Any city that hopes to attempt to reduce both air pollution and the emission of greenhouse gases, needs an extensive network of charging points to encourage the transition to electric vehicles.

Dutch Flower Power

In the Netherlands, they take their cycling seriously. One cycle-related bone of contention, however, is the obstructing of views from Amsterdam's canal bridges, by people chaining their parked machines to the railings. The Dutch being Dutch are trying to use Psychology to change such behaviour. Rather than simply putting notices up banning the activity (as would happen in the UK), they are attaching boxes for floral displays to the railings (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/amsterdam-canal-views-blighted-by-bikes-say-authorities). This, they hope, will convince people to park their bikes elsewhere. To facilitate that behaviour they are also converting some of the adjacent car parking slots into bicycle stands. It's all good, 'green' stuff!

Cool It!

It seems bizarre but melting of the permafrost is (as well as producing the conditions for tsunamis in Alaska), creating substantial problems for big oil companies in the Arctic. The burning of hydrocarbons is, of course, one of the major sources of 'greenhouse gases' driving global warming and climate change. The melting permafrost is, however, endangering the extraction and piping systems of the big oil companies. The solution? To freeze the ground under their equipment! (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/19/oil-alaska-arctic-global-heating-local-cooling). This is, of course, of no benefit to the people and animals in these locations, who just have to live (or die) with the consequences.

Taking to the Bottle

People have repeatedly emphasised the benefits (in terms of bonding, nutrition quality and immune protection) of breast feeding (wherever possible). There is now, however, an added disincentive to bottle feed a formula. It appears, that the high temperatures specified for sterilising the bottles and preparing the formula, result in numerous micro- and nano-particles of plastic being released and inadvertently being fed to the baby (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/19/bottle-fed-babies-swallow-millions-microplastics-day-study). There would be several feeds per day over a pretty long period of early life, so the intake of plastics would be high. Of course, the particles may be relatively harmless to the baby (although this isn't established as yet). There are, however, growing concerns about the biological impacts of plastic particles in ecological systems. Some white blood cells could certainly phagocytose particles. One should also note that some women have to use donated (or even their own stored) human milk. They may hope to avoid some of the problems of formula feeds but sterilising the bottle would also liberate plastics here.

CAP in Hand?

The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the most expensive item on their budget, costing more than 55bn euros per year. The actual money distributed depends purely on the area of land farmed, rather than what one does with it. It is hardly remarkable then, that the dire state of the EU's conservation programmes, seems to be mainly down to intensive farming (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/19/vast-majority-europe-key-habitats-poor-bad-condition-report). Apparently, 80% of key habitats within the eurozone are rated as 'poor' or 'bad' and only 25% of species (limited to animals and plants?) have a good conservation status. There are a few recent success stories (e.g. the reintroduction of the wolf) but achieving a good balance between encouraging food production and maintaining a healthy environment, is still some way off. Perhaps the CAP hand-outs need to reflect conservation actvities carried out by farmers?

Cold-Shock Cure for Dementia?

It has been known, for some time, that most Mammals can produce a protein on being exposed to cold, that protects the brain as the animal hibernates. This protein has been shown, in mice, to even repair some of the damage that is normally associated with dementia. Dementia is, of course, a growing problem in aging human populations. Cold-shock, as one might get with cold water swimming, stimulates the production of the protective protein in mice. A study has now been carried out by Cambridge University on human swimmers at London's Parliament Hill Lido (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54531075#:~:text=Cold%20water%20swimming%20may%20protect%20the%20brain%20from,like%20dementia%2C%20researchers%20from%20Cambridge%20University%20have%20discovered.). They found that some of the participants showed an increase in the protein after doing cold-water swims. It remains, of course, to show that the protein can actually protect (or even repair) the brains of humans who might be prone to dementia. I gather that, if the protein works, the intention is not to force old folk into cold swimming pools or cold showers. The alternative hope is to find drugs that will stimulate the production of the protein. I suspect that GM techniques could be used to directly produce the protein but it might stimulate immune responses when injected. Still, I now think I understand why Finns go straight from the sauna to an ice-covered lake and why there is this annual enthusiasm, in some parts of the UK, for having a swim (for charity?) on Boxing Day.