The Uncertainty Principle and Climate Change

The Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK government (Professor John Beddington) makes a useful point about the much trumpeted 'erroneous claims' in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/jan/27/climate-change-uk-top-scientist-urges-caution). He feels that part of the difficulty of this (and other areas of science) relates to communicating uncertainty in a complex and changing problem. He suggests that the IPCC should often follow statements about particular phenomena (such as the melting of the Himalayan glaciers) with words such as 'there's a level of uncertainty about that'. Beddington maintains that this might reduce the power of sceptics to convince the general public that they are being misled by the 'climate change lobby'. He also feels that, on balance, nothing that has been presented thus far provides a real case for inaction.

Winging It!

It's odd the things you run across (literally)! Whilst jogging along the cycle track running along Swansea Bay, I found the above neatly removed pair of wings. Looks as if a Carrion crow has picked a pigeon clean.

Seeing the Changes 254

At Penclacydd, the Alder (Alnus glutinosa) catkins were much in evidence.

Living Jewels?

A report (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/22/bling-beetle-bugs-us-customs) that a woman crossing from Mexico to Brownsville, Texas declared a live beetle, chained to her sweater, as a broach encrusted with paste 'gems' has aroused some concerns. The animal was confiscated by the local Plant Inspection Station as the woman did not have 'pest importation' documents. The beetle's fate is unknown but the woman was allowed to continue her journey as she had committed no offence. People from US Welfare Groups have expressed concerns about the ethics of this 'mutilation' but a) 'bugs' are often disposed of by people with little apparent agonising (so valuing such beetles might actually be beneficial to the species) and b) beetle decoration is said to have a long history in some parts of the world (Jackie Kennedy is reported to have been presented with one covered in real emeralds). I suppose that the American agencies were more concerned about the possibility of an agricultural pest getting into their country rather than the welfare of the beetle. It is presumably quite hard to identify a jewel-encrusted beetle as a living entity.

Floaters and Sinkers?

It is interesting to note that 5 severely damaged Florida turtles have been transported to Weymouth Sealife Park in Dorset to live out their days on display (http://www.zandavisitor.com/newsarticle-2881-Weymouth_Sea_Life_Park_Aquarium_Acquires_5_Disabled_Sea_Turtles). This may have stemmed from a recent move of a displaced turtle in the opposite direction (flown from Weymouth to Florida). The 5 turtles had reportedly been damaged by collisions with powerboats in Florida, often leading to a fracturing of their shells or even paraplegia. A number were unable to dive to obtain their food because of buoyancy problems and have been assisted in this action by the application of weights to their shells. The claimed reason for this exercise is that the turtles had outgrown their Florida tanks and would get a better quality of life in the specialist turtle attraction in Weymouth. The displayed turtles might well encourage UK visitors to financially support conservation of such reptiles in the wild. One has to balance this against the facts that the Florida turtles were transported by air and road to Weymouth, they are a foreign species, damage makes them unlikely to breed, they are unlikely to fully replicate the behaviour of undamaged animals (perhaps giving visitors an erroneous impression of the species) and that, by remaining in Florida, they might have encouraged responsible operation of powerboats. They will at least get to eat broccoli in Dorset!

Birder's Bonus 65

In Loughor, the sun brought out foraging bands of Long-tailed tits (Aegithalos caudatus), flitting from bare branch to bare branch. It also seemed to stimulate territorial behaviour in pairs of European robin (Erithacus rubecula). Saw Barry Stewart who informed me about the Gower Ornithological Society blog (http://goweros.blogspot.com/) that has lots of material on the recent cold weather-related movement of unusual bird species into the area.

Seeing the Changes 253

With the disappearance of most of the ice, the Snowdrops (Galanthus nivalis) were revealed to be in bloom in Loughor.