The claim ( http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article2658640.ece ) by the UK Minister of Heath (Alan Johnson) that rising obesity levels in England and Wales (it is predicted that by 2032 50% of adults here will be clinically obese) needs, I feel, a little careful reflection. There is no doubt that obesity is strongly linked to a wide range of serious medical conditions including various manifestations of heart disease, stroke and diabetes. It can also be associated with joint problems etc. A high incidence of this condition (largely, although there has been enthusiasm for a 'fat gene', a consequence of over consumption and/or inadequate exercise) will result in the 'premature' (in the modern sense of before 65) deaths of some individuals and place a considerable additional burden on the NHS (treatment for many of the associated medical problems is both chronic and expensive). The NHS currently spends between 10 and 20% of its budget on obesity-linked conditions. Truly estimating total costs for an 'obesity epidemic' is not easy as one should perhaps add in factors as diverse as early loss of expertise (trained individuals dying), providing carers/support for the children and aging parents of the victims as well as funeral costs into the equation. Obesity (largely a 'Western' problem) is a relatively modern concern. In contrast, people who were starved in the Second World War have often exhibited extended longevity (as do early food-limited animals), suggesting that too little food is occasionally good for you. The costs of an 'obesity epidemic' would be great but greater than global warming? If the predictions of the main stream climate change modellers come about, we are talking about major loss of habitable land, numerous extreme weather events, losses of human life on a grand scale, as well as decimation of animal and plant species in many areas of the globe. One of the cited reasons for the award of the Nobel peace Prize to Al Gore was the Award Committee's belief that Global Warming might well result in numerous resource-associated wars over water and food. Some of these claims are debatable but I don't think that UK obesity problems (although something that should seriously concern us) are quite in the same league. Perhaps the Minister is using a touch of 'poetic licence' to make his point? One could even suggest (I appreciate that it is rather callous to do so) that reduced human longevity might well reduce the rate of global warming.
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