Aliens!

Across the world, the damage of alien species invasions is said to treble every decade (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/31/damage-from-alien-species-invasions-trebling-every-decade). The alien animals, plants and fungi either 'hitch a ride' or are deliberately transported by people. Aliens cause damage to crops, buildings and public health. They also often have profound destructive effects on the ecologies of the locations they reach. It is worrying that the UK is currently skipping any attempt at phytosecurity because of customs difficulties. Prior to this, my home town of Swansea, became Japanese knotweed central. This alien was brought in (minus, as usual, any species to keep it in check) by gardeners, in Victorian times. Japanese knotweed is now everywhere. It is difficult (it has rhisomes) and expensive to eradicate. This is a plant that can crack the foundations of buildings and roads.

School is in For Vaccines?

A number of people have questioned whether there is any need to vaccinate school-aged children against Covid-19. Afterall, young people rarely (although there are exceptions) get a life-threatening infection with this virus. Schools, however, do have mature people (e.g. teachers and support workers) working and visiting them. There is also a likelihood of children transmitting the disease, when they return home to their families. It might even be easier to proceed with uninterrupted education in schools, where most pupils have some immunity to infection. There is also the 'doomsday scenario' of a new variant of Sars-CoV-2, eventually also proving dangerous to younger age groups. A number of drug companies have now been trialling their vaccines in younger subjects (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/31/pfizer-covid-biontech-vaccine-safe-effective-children). In the US, the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been trialled in more than 2.25k 12-15 year olds. The vaccine was well-tolerated (as well as preventing infection). It produced only mild to moderate side-effects, similar to those seen in 16-25 year old subjects. The data is currently being submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration. Pfizer also plan to submit it to the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. If approved, the option of giving the vaccine to school-aged recipients, will exist. Moderna is also recruiting subjects in the 16 months to 12 years of age cohort for tests with their mRNA vaccine. If this works out, Primary school and kindergarten children could also be protected.

Red Wine and Cataracts

In England, the National Health Service performs around 450,000 cataract operations every year. Cataracts (opaque areas in the lens of the eye) are the major cause of blindness, especially in older people. A study now suggests moderate drinking reduces the risk of developing cataracts (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/31/british-study-links-alcohol-with-lower-risk-of-developing-cataracts). The study was carried out by Moorfield Eye Hospital (London) and University College of London's Institute of Opthalmology. It analysed life-style data (always a bit dodgy, as it is based on self reports) for almost half a million participants. People consuming up to 14 units of alcohol per week (this is classed as 'moderate') had an around 23% reduced risk of developing cataracts. The study suggested red wine was most beneficial, as it contains antioxidants. Antioxidants may counter cataract formation. Perhaps we will be able get red wine on prescription? Moderation is, however, the key.

Trees Continue to Fall in 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 was characterised by marked reductions in lots of human activities. One thing that accelerated, however, was deforestation in key Tropical regions (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/31/destruction-of-worlds-forests-increased-sharply-in-2020-loss-tree-cover-tropical). A study by the University of Maryland and Global Forest Watch, calculate that circa 42,000 square kilometres of forest were cleared in 2020. The main areas involved were predictably the Amazon, the Congo and S-E Asia. The total area cleared is well above the average for the last 20 years. The 2020 deforestation figure is actually the third highest over that time. These tropical forests are an essential carbon sink (they take carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it). This sink will not be replaced by simply planting conifers in Northern Europe. Loss of Tropical forest cover, makes uncontrollable climate change, for the whole planet, all the more likely. This is clearly an issue for COP26. The issue will not be solved, by telling the people making the clearances, not to do it.

Seeing the Changes 1525

Spanish bluebell (Endymion hispanicus) in bloom in Loughor. In Bynea, Ground ivy (Glechoma hederacea) was in flower.

Floating Wind Farms

Norwegian company Equinor developed the first floating windfarm. This is the Hywind site off Aberdeen (https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/mar/30/roaring-success-of-scottish-windfarm-shows-global-potential). The Hywind installation benefits from accessing the more reliable and stronger winds way out at sea. It performs much better than static windfarms, fixed in shallow marine locations. Floating has enabled Hywind to achieve records for maximum electricity output. More electricity means cheaper! Predictably, there is now a race on to establish floating windfarms around the UK (and other) coasts.

It Always Seemed Likely?

Given the very nature of a viral pandemic, it has always seemed obvious the first generation of vaccines for Sars-CoV-2, will have limited lives. Watching growing totals of people getting first and subsequent jabs on TV news reports, may reassure but it's not an irreversible process. Viruses proliferate in infected individuals (and animals?) in extraordinary numbers. Mutations occur on a regular basis. People in many parts of the world, will remain unvaccinated for months (if not, years). The world is interconnected, so the inevitably-arising, new mutations will spread from one area to another. If you wanted an expert view, the People's Vaccine Alliance have surveyed 77 Epidemiologists, Virologists and Infectious Disease specialists from more than 20 countries (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/new-covid-vaccines-needed-within-year-say-scientists). The survey revealed that two thirds of the specialists, thought new Covid-19 vaccines would be needed in a year or less. A third of respondants thought we had a maximum of 9 months, before having to bring in changed formulations. Although the new mRNA vaccines can be tweaked relatively quickly, they are a) expensive and b) require storage at low temperatures. Both features suggest they will be of limited utility in poor and remote parts of the world. This virus isn't going anywhere soon. It's going to be vaccine tweak after vaccine tweak after vaccine tweak (as is the case for seasonal 'flu). Makes 'vaccine passports' rather problematic?

Birds of a Feather?

News about the 'Dutch' Green Business group gets weirder and weirder. First, we hear that well-known environmentalist Nigel Farage has been appointed to their advisory board. Then we are told that one of the group's major share-holders is a British businessman. It turns out, he is another Trump enthusiast and a QAnon propaganist (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/nigel-farage-green-employer-qanon-john-mappin). This doesn't augur well for the motivations of a company who claim their prime focus is to solve environmental problems by planting trees. I wonder if they would quote me the number of trees needed for a bit of Space Tourism? How about running Formula 1 or a major International Football competition? Clearing a few hundred square kilometres of Amazon rainforest? Perhaps, I need to first find out a) where the trees would be located; b) the species involved; c) how long they would remain in place and d) what would happen to them subsequently? Or should I just trust them to do the right thing?

Drip, Drip

Here we go again! Several European countries had stopped using the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. This was, they claimed, 'out of an abundance of caution', after some reports of an apparent link to a very rare blood clot condition. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) examined the data and ruled that the vaccine was safe and reliably protected against Covid-19. The European countries started administering the vaccine again. Now, Canada have suspended giving the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to the under 55's (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/30/canada-suspends-use-of-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-for-those-under-55). The Canadian suspension is not linked to any local reports of blood clots. They haven't seen any. The concern relates to the earlier European reports, already examined (and rejected) by the EMA. The Canadians want more data from Europe. In the meantime, fewer people receive protection against Covid-19, an infection that causes serious illness and can kill. And vaccine hesitancy receives yet another boost.

What's In the Water?

The UK government seems happy not to know whether our tap waters contain per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). PFAS are the so-called 'forever chemicals' (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/25/uk-flying-blind-on-levels-of-toxic-chemicals-in-tap-water). PFAS are compounds that do not break down. Their properties mean they have been added to many of the items we all encounter in our daily lives. PFAS are found in carpets, clothing, cook-ware (non-stick pans), furniture and packaging etc. They have, however, also been linked to cancers. It seems important to determine whether PFAS have made their way into our tap water. Ignorance isn't always bliss!

Davy Jones' Cellar

There have been numerous reports of vintages being retrieved by divers from long-sunken ships. Sometimes, these wines have proved to be exceptionally drinkable. A keen diver, Borja Saracho, thought that allowing wines to mature on the seabed might have benefits (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/29/wineries-bottles-seabed-ageing). Saracho reasoned that the well-controlled temperature with reduced lighting on the seabed, combined with the gentle rocking motion of waves would help the wine mature. To test his idea, he obtained permission to create a 500 square metre wine-storage 'reef' in the Basque Country's Bay of Plentzia (good choice). The wines appear to be excellent!

Can the Cosy Consensus?

Ed Milliband thinks there is a danger of a cosy consensus becoming the prevailing characteristic of the COP26 talks in Glasgow (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/29/last-thing-we-need-is-a-cosy-consensus-on-climate-crisis-warns-ed-miliband). Milliband believes the COP26 event could be largely treated as a photo opportunity, where delegates waffle on about their aspirations for 2030 or 2050. He points out that, the actions required to stop global warming are 'terrifying and exacting'. We need substantial world-wide changes and we need them now. I agree. Otherwise, we are, to recoin a phrase, 'Simply rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic'.

Not Fade Away

A number of apps, now including whatsapp, offer disappearing messages. These messages permanently delete, for both the sender and receipient, within 7 days. Other apps, like signal, have been doing this for years. In every case, it's as if the messages had never existed. These disappearing messaging apps appear problematic for political business (https://www.theguardian.com/law/2021/mar/29/legal-challenge-seeks-stop-ministers-sending-disappearing-messages-whatsapp). The campaigning law group, Foxglove, is making a legal challenge to stop politicians using disappearing messaging apps. As they say, "Privacy is for the citizen. Transparency is for government". Foxglove think the current system is 'democracy backwards'. As they say, government knows lots about its citizens but the citizens know less and less about them. One can understand, why disappearing messages are attractive to politicians. They will often feel the need to bury a stupid comment or something said 'privately' to their own group. Indeed, there are many ocassions, when emails sent 10 years previously, have come back to haunt aspiring politicians. Sometimes the emails were sent, when they were private citizens. I agree, however, that it is important that politicians be held to account. There has to be a record. Politians are slippy enough, without having this 'Get Out of Jail Free' card. It might prove more difficult, however, to specify the circumstances, when politicians and officials have to use messaging with a permanent record.

Funny Business?

News the Dutch Green Business Group have appointed Nigel Farage to its advisory board, sets off alarms (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/28/nigel-farage-appointed-to-advisory-board-of-green-finance-firm). The Dutch Green Business Group's primary focus appears to be the carbon offsetting industry. Its basic principle seems to be that anything, no matter how environmentally problematic, can be rendered 'carbon neutral' by planting trees. Planting trees is a good idea but it needs to be combined with reductions in activities with large carbon footprints. Otherwise, carbon offsetting is likely to be a pot of 'greenwash'. Mr Farage is a long-established climate change sceptic. He may have political connections but many of those are distinctly 'dodgy'. He is certainly not the kind of person to reassure people that the Dutch Green Business Group are truly trying to 'cure' the climate emergency.

Hot Air

In the UK, 14% of carbon emissions, come from our draughty and poorly insulated homes. There was a typical great fanfare, when the UK government announced its Green Homes grants scheme. This scheme was going to rectify the emissions problem by giving grants of between £5000 and £10000 to insulate homes or put in low carbon heating. 'Building back, greener', claimed to have the potential to create masses of new skilled jobs. The scheme turned out to be bureaucratic, poorly run and skilled jobs were actually lost. Builders waited for grants, that never materialised and abandoned training. The Green Homes grant scheme is now to be scrapped, only 6 months after its launch (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/27/uk-government-scraps-green-homes-grant-after-six-months). The winding up of the Green Homes grants scheme, means the UK effectively has nothing in place, to solve the problem of excessive carbon emissions from its housing stock. As a number of people have commented, this is not a good look, when the country will be chairing COP26 in Glasgow. The UK claim they aspire to be leaders in the battle against climate change. Unfortunately, they appear only 'world class' in terms of bluster. Bluster adds to the release of hot air, rather than reduces it!

Human Reproduction at Risk?

In 2017, Professor Shanna Swan (Mount Sinai School of Medicine) showed that the sperm count of US males had halved over the previous 40 years (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/28/shanna-swan-fertility-reproduction-count-down). Swan suggests the decline in sperm count was largely caused by environmental chemicals. These suppress sex steroid (androgen and oestrogen) production by the gonads (testis and ovary). Sperm production by the testis depends on testosterone production (as well as FSH and LH from the pituitary gland). Prime hormone disrupters include Phthalates and Bisphenol A, both used in the production of plastics. Unless things change, by 2045, Swan thinks that most US couples will have to rely on assisted reproductive techniques.

I Am the Walrus

Doing its own Magical Mystery Tour, a juvenile Atlantic walrus has turned up on rocks off the South Wales coast (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/22/mystery-of-the-walrus-spotted-on-rocks-on-the-welsh-coast). Walruses are usually found in the Arctic. Marks on the flipper of this cow-sized, beast, suggest it's the same animal, seen earlier in the week, off County Kerry in Ireland. Why the walrus was so far south of its normal range is uncertain. A suggestion has been made it could have fallen asleep on a drifting ice floe but this seems unlikely. It is more probable this marine mammal had to roam widely in search of food or became disorientated by disturbance.

A Sand Martin's Home Is Its Sand Castle?

Sand martins migrate to the UK from sub-Saharan Africa, in order to feed and breed. The species has, however, suffered from a loss of inland nesting sites (colonies typically occupy sandy river banks) in the UK. People working at Spynes Mere Nature Reserve in Surrey, are hoping to encourage Sand martins to breed again on site (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/27/giant-sandcastle-sand-martins-surrey-nature-reserve). The Nature Reserve is employing professional sand sculptors to make a 400 tonne sand 'castle'. Sand martins visit Spynes Mere every year but have failed to nest there for 25 years. It is hoped that the installation will have exactly the right characteristics, to encourage these tiny, insectivorous birds to take up residence and find a mate.

Seeing the Changes 1524

In Loughor, the flowers of the Horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) were in bud. In Gorseinon, the first Ransoms (Allium ursinum) flowered.

And Then There Were Two

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) have opted to consider African elephant, as two species on their 'red list' of endangered animals (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/25/african-elephants-now-red-list-two-species-both-nearer-extinction). It is now believed the Forest and Savannah elephants (they are genetically distinct) diverged from eachother some 5-6 million years ago. This is about the same time, humans diverged from Chimpanzees. The IUCN regard both species of elephant as being 'critical', in terms of their danger of extinction. The Forest elephant has declined 86%, in just over 30 years. Savannah elephant numbers fell by 60% in the same period. Poaching (for ivory) and habitat loss are the two major causes of elephant losses. Habitat loss is, however, likely to be more intense, in the case of Forest elephants. Forest habitat destruction probably accounts for their greater decline in the numbers and worse survival chances.

Well, That's OK Then?

Apophis is a small (it's about 340m across) asteroid. NASA scientists have ruled out it colliding with the Earth, for at least 100 years (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/27/much-feared-asteroid-apophis-wont-hit-earth-for-at-least-100-years-nasa-says). Apophis is due to come within 32,000 km of our planet on Friday 13th (how spooky is that?) April 2029. At that time, Apophis will be within 1/10th of our distance to the moon. What comes around, goes around. And Apophis comes near the Earth on a regular basis. Davide Farnocchia of NASA now says the latest data on Apophis's orbit, rules out a strike in 2068. After that, things are more uncertain. One less thing to worry about?

Migrating Birds and Underwater Volcanos

In 2013, 3 million Short-tailed shearwaters arrived on the beaches of Australia and promptly died. It is assumed that millions of other birds of this species died at sea. The reason for the mass death remained a mystery until recently. It now appears they were victims of an underwater volcano to the North-east of New Zealand and, possibly, the 'Blob' (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/25/lava-floating-rocks-and-the-blob-the-mystery-behind-the-deaths-of-millions-of-seabirds). The 'Blob' was a marine heatwave which wiped out lots of marine invertebrates and fish. This lack of food was responsible for the deaths of Arctic birds. The 'Blob' could have disrupted the feeding of the Short-tailed shearwaters in the Berent sea, prior to undertaking their energetically-demanding migrations to breed. Necropsies of bird carcasses, revealed they were very underweight and had little muscle mass. Most (97%) had volcanic pumice in their digestive tracts. Pumice is light, so it floats and the desperate shearwaters might have confused it with food. The underwater volcano off New Zealand erupted, as the birds migrated. This generated the pumice. A cruel combination of circumstances.

Big Brains

Human brains (circa 1500 cc) are much bigger than those of a Gorilla (circa 500cc) or a Chimpanzee (circa 400cc). A Cambridge University study examined how this size differential comes about (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/24/scientists-discover-why-the-human-brain-is-so-big). The study involved scientists taking material (left over from operations) from these 3 Primate species. The samples were converted into stem cells (cells with a capacity to develop into a variety of tissue types). The cultured stem cells were then grown and given the necessary stimuli to develop into tiny brain organoids. The size differences were caused by a genetic switch (Zeb2), which was activated later in the case of the human material. This caused the cells to divide more, as the tissue matured, so the human brain organoids were eventually bigger. It is possible this mechanism is a solution to a biological quandary. It pays humans to have big brains. If they were too large at birth, however, passage through the female's birth canal would be extremely hazardous (to both baby and mother). Switching Zeb2 on after parturition, would be a way around the problem.

Whose Sun Is It?

There is a broad concensus that the effects of global heating would be devastating for the planet and its peoples. The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) advocates spending between $100m and $200m over 5 years, investigating the possible utility of Solar geoengineering to counter climate change (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/25/top-us-scientists-back-100m-geoengineering-research-proposal ). Solar engineering aims to cool the planet by processes such as preventing as much sunlight reaching the surface and/or reflecting more of it back into space. The NAS argument is that, the consequences of climate change would be so dire, that all options must be considered. There are (at least) three problems with these proposals. The first is that Solar geoengineering might well have complex effects on weather patterns over the entire planet. It seems a tad arrogant to ignore risks to people living outside the US, who would presumably not have been asked for their consent. The second is that other countries might be encouraged to do their own Solar geoengineering, focusing only on 'local' benefits. Who is going to coordinate and regulate this? The third problem is that Solar geoengineering 'solutions' might act as a green light for people to carry on as they are (continuing to release 'greenhouse gases' into the atmosphere, deforest, bottom trawl etc). I am sure that NAS advocates see Solar geoengineering as a solution of last resort but researching it is still problematic.

Hospitals Are Dangerous Places?

It's not really surprising that hospitals are an infection focus in a pandemic. It is still, however, sobering to learn estimates of people contracting Covid-19, whilst they were inpatients in the UK (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/26/40600-people-likely-caught-covid-while-hospital-inpatients-in-england). It seems likely, that well over 40,000 people (1 in 7) were infected by Sars-CoV-2, between 1st August 2020 and 31st March 2021, when visiting hospital for treatment of other conditions. This is in a relatively affluent country, having a free medical service and with relatively good protections. It's appreciated there were problems in the supply of personal protective equipment in UK hospitals at the start of the pandemic. The mandatory wearing of facemasks, when entering public buildings, also was also somewhat delayed. The figures still, however, seem to be inordinately high. Given the facts that a) Sars-Cov-2 is unlikely to go away and b) there will be other pandemics, measures to reduce infections in hospitals need to be 'beefed up'. This will be especially important as hospitals try to clear the backlogs of treatments for cancer, surgery etc.

What's Your Poison?

Just 3 drops of the herbicide (weedkiller) Paraquat will kill a human. The material has been popular with suicides. Syngenta is a Swiss company, producing and marketing a Paraquat-based preparation called Gramoxone. Jon Heylings, used to work for Syngenta. He now maintains the company resisted making 'tweaks', designed to save lives, to Gramoxone (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/24/syngenta-paraquat-deadly-john-heylings). Heylings, at various times, suggested adding an emetic (a preparation that would cause vomiting), colouring agents (designed to make it look less like tea or a soft drink) and evil-smelling agents (providing warning), to the preparation. He maintains all his suggestions were rejected, on the basis they might hit company profits. Paraquat is now banned in the EU, Switzerland and the UK. The compound can only be used by trained individuals, wearing appropriate protection, in the US. Paraquat preparations are still, however, widely sold and used in many parts of Asia. The compound has been responsible for thousands of deaths. Profits over safety?

Science and Sadness

Kimberly Nicolas works on climate crisis at Lund University (Sweden). She makes an interesting observation about science training and our emotions (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/24/scientists-facts-feelings-climate-crisis-sadness). Nicolas points out that successful scientists have to retain their objectivity. If they don't, they are often eliminated by promotion boards for not 'having the right stuff'. Scientists are supposed to search for objective truths. They supply the information, guiding how others (society, politicians and other policy makers?), might act. They are not, however, supposed to let their emotions 'get in the way'. Some 'scientists' do deviate from this imperative. Confusingly, these 'eccentrics' include both charlantans and high-principled folk (these are sometimes difficult to distinguish). Nicolas notes the increasing difficulty for people studying climate change, not to respond emotionally. They will feel sadness at the prospect of losing people, groups of studied organisms and ecosystems. Only a few years ago, only a few experts felt real concerns by the climate change data they were uncovering. Now, most people on the planet are at least aware that 'Houston, we have a problem'. This is probably even true, in the case of climate change deniers. Perhaps the scientists should be allowed to feel? Afterall, they have generally been living with awareness of the dangers for longer. Being scientifically objective does not preclude feeling sadness at what one is seeing.

Would They Do It Again?

An early calculation estimated Pfizer and BioNTech, would each make $13bn from the sales of their vaccine (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/10/pfizer-and-biontech-could-make-13bn-from-coronavirus-vaccine). Similar profits will presumably be made by Moderna for theirs. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson both pledged to produce their vaccines on a not-for-profit basis. The AstraZeneca pledge is for the 'duration of the pandemic'. The company also reserve the right to declare, when they think the pandemic is over. In spite of this 'get-out' clause, the company appeared to be, at least initially, broadly acting in the public interest. They, no doubt, calculated they would 'get brownie points' for their actions. It was consequently rather sad, to hear on the radio, an AstraZeneca executive, on being asked if the company would strike another not-for-profit deal, replied "Probably not!" They do seem to have had a comparatively rough ride.

The Answer Doesn't Lie in the Soil

Soils and the plants growing in them, are one of the largest terrestrial carbon sinks on the planet. Soils and plants store about a third of carbon emissions and both were assumed to limit climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide. When atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, so does plant growth. It was thought increased carbon storage would be seen in soils. Repeated studies carried out at Stanford University have, however, shown that carbon stored in soil declines, as plant growth increases (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/24/soils-ability-to-absorb-carbon-emissions-may-be-overestimated-study). Three times more carbon is stored in soils than in plants. The carbon can also remain in soils for centuries, whereas plants quickly rot. It is uncertain how large the effect of lower carbon storage in soils might be on the speed of climate change. The Stanford findings suggest, however, that ability of soils to limit climate change, have been over-estimated.

Wildfires and SE England?

We have all seen the dreadful impact of wildfires in Australia and California. These events were largely caused by a combination of rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and strong winds. A study, led by Reading University, looks at probable changing incidences of such extreme weather events in the UK (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/24/rising-risk-of-wildfires-across-uk-from-climate-crisis-scientists-warn). The Reading study found that by 2080, if greenhouse gases continue to rise, extreme weather events will be much more common here. The East and South-East England will experience these combinations for several days each year. Presently, they occur once every 50-100 years. The risk of wildfires in this location will consequently be considerably racheted up.

Your Non-Listening Banks

The world's 60 largest banks have reportedly provided almost 4tn dollars of financing for oil, gas and coal companies, since the Paris Climate Accord of 2015 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/24/big-banks-trillion-dollar-finance-for-fossil-fuels-shocking-says-report). Much of this bank financing was provided to enable companies to exploit new reserves of fossil fuels. One of the major messages from Paris, was the need to keep fossil fuels in the ground, if we didn't want runaway climate change. Worryingly, the provision of bank finance in 2020, was higher than in 2016 or 2017! This takes no account of the global Covid-19 pandemic and reduced demands for oil, gas and coal. Perhaps the Glasgow COP26 should ask the banks why they have a deathwish for the planet?

Seeing the Changes 1523

Mating cranefly (Tipula vittata) in Loughor.

Birder's Bonus 207

Didn't get round to posting it yesterday but two Common shelduck (Tadorna tadorna) on the Loughor, off Penclacwydd.

Negative Carbon Emissions?

The Drax electricity-generating station in Yorkshire used to be a major burner of coal. Thankfully, the plant no longer uses coal and has switched to using wood pellets (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/23/green-groups-dispute-power-station-claim-biomass-carbon-neutral). The switch from coal to wood at Drax, was only realised by the injection of some £800m of government subsidies etc. A number of environmental organisations (including Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace) have, however, challenged the Drax operator's claim their plant provides 'negative carbon emissions'. Trees incorporate carbon dioxide into wood. That carbon dioxide is 'liberated' from the biomass, by burning and could be subject to carbon capture. The use of this biomass is not, however, strictly carbon neutral. The wood has to be collected, processed and transported to Drax. The station's carbon footprint will be substantially larger, if they, due to shortages, have to import wood from Canada to burn. Biomass does little to reduce the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. It's basically gas in, gas out (with more out than in). It would be better to increase the use of renewables in electricity generation.

Branch Line

'Deep Branch' is an £8m UK startup claiming to turn carbon dioxide into protein. Its postulated intention, is to use the generated protein for animal feed (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/22/uk-startup-raises-8m-funding-convert-co2-animal-feed). The 'Deep Branch' technology involves 'feeding' carbon and hydrogen to cultures of a particular microbe in fermentation vats. Fermentation, in this case, generates protein rather than alcohol. This protein can then be dried and converted into pellets of animal feed. Part of the 'sale's pitch' is that the Deep Branch's protein would reduce the use of soya and fishmeal in animal feed. Soya has been implicated in deforestation (areas are cleared to grow the crop) and fishmeal in over-fishing (and losses of fish-eating birds). The company plan to open a first plant in Norway (a country with the world's largest salmon farms). The Deep Branch process is not, however, quite as 'green' as it appears. The generated protein would have to be blended with other biomass, to meet the nutrient requirements of the cattle and fish receiving the pellets. The process is also not a form of carbon capture. Carbon dioxide going into the process is counter-balanced by carbon dioxide generation. Indeed, the provision of carbon and hydrogen to the vats, both have intrinsic carbon 'footprints'. The process might well be useful but appears far from a solution for climate change.

Another One Hits the Dust

This 'Freddie Mercury' was a seal pup, who took up residence for several weeks, around Hammersmith Bridge on London's Thames river (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/22/freddie-the-thames-seal-to-be-put-down-by-vets-after-dog-attack). Although the seal's presence delighted many people, he was extremely vulnerable. A dog, out with his owner, savaged the sunbathing pup. 'Freddie's wounds meant he had to be euthanased by vets. This illustrates the difficulties that wildlife often encounter from humans.

Sharks As Environmentalists?

In 2011, an extreme marine heatwave wiped out 25% of one of the world's largest and most biodiverse seagrass meadows in Shark Bay, Western Australia. Dudongs (marine Mammals) grazed on the seagrass but they left at the time of the heatwave. A heat-resistant seagrass could help recovery in an area of the bay. This provided the conditions for an experiment, evaluating the importance of sharks in the ecosystem's recovery (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/22/sharks-critical-restoring-climate-damaged-ecosystems-study). The shark is an apex predator. Their presence reduces the time the dugongs can graze on the seagrass. The scientists replicated the feeding durations of dugongs with and without sharks. They sent down scuba divers with trowels to carry out marine 'gardening'. The grazing of dugongs in the absence of sharks, would mean the meadow could never recover. Sharks appear to be critical for ecosystem recovery.

Pet (Heart) Sounds

Luca Ferasin works in a Specialist Veterinary Hospital in Buckinghamshire. He has speculated, that the rising incidence of myocarditis in cats and dogs, can be linked to infection with the B117 (Kent) variant of Covid-19 (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/21/vets-warn-new-covid-variant-heart-problems-pets-cats-dogs). As in humans, inflammation of the heart muscle is life-threatening for companion animals. Prior to the Kent variant, cats and dogs only seemed to evidence a respiratory infection when their owners had Covid-19. Ferasin maintains he is only talking about human to pet transmission and not vice versa. This seems, however, just the statement a vet is likely to make. If you can catch Sars-CoV-2 from a mink, you can certainly catch it from a cat or a dog. In fact, animal to human transmission is more likely as contacts are closer. Humans may be less likely to show myocarditis but this is not certain.

Who Are You Calling 'Horrific'?

It's a bit rich calling the swarms of spiders fleeing into homes in order to escape the flood waters of New South Wales (Australia), 'horrific' (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/22/horrific-swarms-of-spiders-flee-into-homes-and-up-legs-to-escape-nsw-floods). Spiders had no role in climate change, unlike their hosts!

It's a Pity They Didn't Wait?

The countries, who stopped delivering the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, citing 'an excess of caution', seem to have acted inappropriately. A very large US trial with participants in America, Chile and Peru is now added to the already substantial body of data on the vaccine. This US study, shows the vaccine has 79% effectiveness and does not increase blood clotting risk (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/22/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-79-effective-with-no-increased-blood-clot-risk-us-trial). Indeed, in the US study, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was 100% effective, in protecting against severe or critical disease. A separate analysis by AstraZeneca, on more than 21.5k people, who had received a first dose of the vaccine, also found no increased risk of thrombosis. It's a great pity there was a delay, getting this vaccine into arms. The impression is certainly given, that the nations pausing their roll-outs of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, didn't weigh the evidence fairly. Political point scoring seems to have trumped public health?

Seeing the Changes 1522

In Bynea, the first of the Field horsetails (Equisetum arvense) were poking out.

'Post-Normal Science on Steroids'?

Sonia Sodha has an opinion piece (plugging a TV programme?) on 'post-modern' science (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/20/were-living-in-a-time-of-high-stakes-and-scientific-risks-need-to-be-taken). Sodha's point is that some science has to take place when 'the values around science are in dispute, the stakes are high and decisions urgent'. She describes Covid science as being 'post-normal science on steroids'. Sodha thinks that such circumstances mean that science cannot 'move in a stately fashion with great caution' (did it ever?) and that 'scientific risks have to be taken'. She notes that there has been a politicalisation of science. Politicians choose which bits of science fit their agendas and they can always find a 'scientist', willing to express almost any position. None of this is really new. Science has to be paid for (by grants, charities or by commerce). You can't, in the modern world, be a successful scientist, without the funding to do your science. No papers, no promotions, no employment! Gentlemen scientists, with private means (like Charles Darwin) were always extreme rarities. Science can be remarkably cut-throat. Scientists are human and all have their foibles. They will tend to push particular views. Sodha is right in maintaining, that just because something comes out of the mouth of an eminent scientist, you shouldn't necessarily believe it. I do think, however, that it is better to have rational reasons for taking decisions (or for politicians to take decisions for us). It worries me, when advising expert bodies appear draw on a limited range of study. Urgent decisions may be needed in emergencies. If there is great uncertainty, monitoring has to be in place to assess whether the decision was the right one. It would also be useful to plan how any errors could be quickly reversed. Otherwise, you are simply oscillating between the demands of pressure groups. 'Post-modern science' appears to be just a fancy term for the science/politics interface. The symbiosis becomes more obvious, when the issue is newsworthy.

Seeing the Changes 1521

A sunny day in Loughor. Herb Robert (Geranium robertianum) and Field forgetmenot (Myosotis arvensis) were both in flower.

Are Foreign Holidays More Important Than Public Health?

<

I like a foreign holiday, as much as anyone else. I am struck, however, by the political howls of rage, following suggestions that Summer trips abroad for people in the UK, might not be feasible this year (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/21/uk-minister-hints-covid-rules-on-foreign-travel-could-extend-to-summer). Some politicians seem keener on their foreign holiday, than on public safety. Most popular foreign holiday locations, will still have large populations of unvaccinated residents/workers by June 2021. The higher the number of infections with Sars-CoV-2, the greater the probability of new viral variants arising. Governments might try to differentiate between (relatively) safe and (relatively) risky locations. People are, however, forced to mingle, when they travel. Just think about sitting on a coach or a plane. Think also about airport terminals. Do none of the politicians remember how Covid-19 first arrived in the UK? People returning from skiing holidays in Europe were a major factor. Even if a large proportion of the UK population are vaccinated by Summer, they may not be immune to all arriving variants. Could we have fewer temper-tantrums?

Rewilding Versus Rehousing?

The Knepp estate in West Sussex (England) is a former arable and dairy farm. It was transformed into the largest rewilding project in lowland England. Healthy populations of some of the rarest birds (e.g. Nightingales, Peregrine falcons, Turtle doves and White storks) and insects (e.g. the Purple emperor butterfly) in the UK, can now be found on the Knepp estate. The people running the rewilding project are, however, becoming concerned by the council's plan to build 3,500 new homes. This is likely to be on a green field site adjacent to the Knepp estate (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/21/pioneering-rewilding-project-faces-catastrophe-from-plan-for-new-houses). The Knepp site supporters fear the development would block a wildlife corriodor to the St Leonards and Ashdown forests. This would prevent animals moving inorder to forage, expand their populations and repond to climate change. Connectivity is all-important for many species (especially those that don't fly). Birds and butterflies, unfortunately, don't have votes!

Can Apps Reduce Food Waste?

When people are starving in parts of the world, it is horrifying that one third of all food is wasted. The UK is typical in also throwing away one third of its food. A number of apps are now being used by people, attempting to reduce this food waste (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/mar/21/millions-sign-up-to-anti-food-waste-apps-to-share-their-unused-produce). The apps include Hubbub, Karma, Olio and Too Good To Go. They offer a range of options. These include posting pictures of surplus food, others in their neighbourhood might want. Those people can come to collect the items. Too Good To Go puts together 'magic bags' of foods, at heavily discounted prices. Some of the apps have millions of users worldwide. I am very much in favour of reducing food waste. The apps go some way to doing this and probably make their users feel good about their actions. The apps have, however, a number of limitations. The first is that food waste in a country, like the UK, is largely a consequence of oversupply. People like to be 'tempted' with food options and supermarket profits are entirely related to sales. Supermarkets over stock and many of us buy too much. The apps will not change a commercial model in which food waste is an inevitable consequence. Another limitation is that the food is only moved around locally. The apps may sometimes relieve hunger in local populations but they will have no impact on hunger in other parts of the globe. It is even likely the apps will be more used in rich cities (with lots of people with waste food and others living nearby) than in smaller villages and towns. In fairness, the apps focus on food, rather than people.

From the Horse's Mouth

The EU's machinations on the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is a public health disaster. Giles Tremlett, has taken Spanish nationality, as he works in that country as a doctor. He confirms, in an opinion piece, the EU's stance 'will cost lives, here in Spain, and all over Europe' (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/19/eu-astrazeneca-vaccine-stance-spain-europe-covid ). Tremlett notes, Spain has given a first vaccine dose to fewer than 10% of its population. It is doing worse, in this respect, than either Serbia or Morocco. Spain will start delivering the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine again but not for another 4 days (no rush then?). Tremlett notes, the New York Times (along with many others), think the chief motivation for pausing the use of the vaccine, was 'political'. Even after reassurances from the EMA and the WHO, a number of the EU countries, who paused the vaccine's roll-out, seem very half-hearted about resuming. This is not going to help vaccine hesitants in their populations. It appears odd, the EU complains about getting insufficient quantities of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, when they don't seem to want to use it. Vaccine, in the refrigerator, doesn't save any lives!