Monday 8 July 2024

One Point Five: Not Really Alive?

UK folk may be currently lulled into a false sense of security. Their 2024 'Summer' temperatures are much lower than usual. Climate change, however, disrupts traditional weather patterns. This results in transient geographical 'winners' and 'losers'. The 195 Parties of 2015 Paris Accord, signed up to attempts to keep average global temperatures relatively stable. Increases of more than 1.5 degrees Centigrade above Pre-Industrial levels were judged to be both potentially damaging and dangerous. At subsequent UN meetings, participants were urged to 'Keep 1.5 Alive'! Recent evidence now, however, suggests that 1.5 is 'as dead as the Dodo' (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/08/temperatures-1-point-5c-above-pre-industrial-era-average-for-12-months-data-shows). For 12 consective months, the average global temperatures have been 1.5 degrees Centigrade above those seen, when humans started burning 'fossil fuels'. The Copernicus Climate Change Service describes the current climate shift as 'large and continuing'. 1.5 was always a somewhat optimistic target. It wasn't even possible, even if it had been 'kept alive', to rule out exceeding 'tipping points' (changes that are difficult/impossible to reverse). Humans need to get their act together, if they don't simply want to follow the Dodo.

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