Modelling the UK's Covid-19 Outbreak

Modelling a Pandemic is always problematical (remember the old computer adage "Garbage in: Garbage out") and getting accurate numbers for Covid-19 infections and deaths in the UK has been problematical. The respected Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, which is based at the University of Washington in the USA, has, however, come up with some predictions for our country (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/how-can-coronavirus-models-get-it-so-wrong). They initially point out that modelling is most accurate where the epidemic has already peaked (e.g. Italy) and have used that information to guide predictions about the likely pattern in countries (e.g. the UK) where it is still climbing. Their predicted daily death-rate in the UK is between 800 and 8000 (a wide variation but both figures are strikingly high) and they think the epidemic will peak here around the 17th of April. Even worse, they reckon that, by August, the UK will have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than France, Germany, Italy and Spain combined. It is a model but it's scary.