Monday, 1 March 2021

Brazil Border?

The B1128 (Brazil) variant of Covid-19 is thought to be highly transmissible (like the South African version). There are also fears that it will respond less well to existing vaccines. Six cases have been recently identified in the UK, 3 in South Gloucestershire and 3 in Scotland (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/28/person-believed-to-have-brazilian-covid-variant-being-sought-in-england). Variant typing of positive tests is not done routinely (it requires PCR sequencing). There is consequently a strong probability, that the existence of the variant in the UK, was only confirmed because, the people having an initial positive test, had obvious links to Brazil (i.e. the medics subsequently looked for it). One of the South Gloucestershire positives had returned from Brazil, a month after the variant had been identified in Manaus. The individual arrived back in the UK, 5 days before the start of the 'more secure' hotel quarantine system (10 days in a managed airport hotel, with tests, at their own expense). Another English Brazil variant positive, lived, in the same household. There are now plans to test in areas surrounding their home location. Authorities also hope to investigate passengers, who travelled on the same flight from Brazil (involving aircraft changes). All this, is like 'closing the stable door, after the horse has bolted'. The variant could have spread far and wide in the elapsed time. Even more concerning is the third Brazil variant case found in the English 'cluster'. That individual did not complete a registration card for their test. There are, consequently, no contact details. The authorities are appealing for people, who had a test in the time frame, to come forward. Tracking the arrival and spread of Covid-19 variants is futile, unless travel restrictions become much more draconian. It might also help, if PCR tests routinely followed positive lateral flow tests but this would require major investment (and takes days rather than minutes).

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