Wednesday 17 May 2023

Only a 'Temporary' Catastrophe?

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says, by 2027, the Earth is 'likely to breach' its 1.5 degrees Centigrade climate 'theshold'. They probably actually mean 'will breach'! In Paris' COP 2015, it was claimed that 1.5 degrees (above pre-industrial levels) was the maximal heating the world could 'safely' tolerate, without triggering a 'climate catastrophe. 1.5 was always an 'educated guess 'rather than any guarantee. The WMO thinks the breach is likely, due to a combination of the El Nino climate phenomenon and human-mediated emissions. It suggests that global temperatures may come down again, after circa 5 years, as El Nino fades (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/17/global-heating-climate-crisis-record-temperatures-wmo-research). Things may, of course, not be quite so simple. Any elevation of world temperatures, will result in more fires and greater melting of snow and ice. The former, will release even more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The latter, will result in less solar radiation being reflected back into space. Increased heat will further melt the tundra, releasing more methane, another potent 'greenhouse gas'. There's also a strong probability important ocean currents and atmospheric circulations will be permanently disrupted. These changes could combine, to 'rocket boost' global heating and further disrupt the climate. 'Normal service' may not, in fact, be resumed, after this 'initial' breach!

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