Friday 5 March 2021

Developing a Cassandra Complex?

Cassandra was a mythological Trojan priestess, fated to make accurate prophecies, without ever being believed. I appreciate there is an element of self-absorption (probably related to my relative social isolation in Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns) but I'm starting to worry that I might be showing some of the same characteristics. I also understand that, in the current world, we operate in circles, where we will be bombarded by like-minded information sources (I have posted previously on confirmation bias). Finally, I am fully aware that nobody likes an old pessimist. What is the evidence for my concerns? I am neither a virologist nor a disease expert (I was, in my former life, a Psychobiologist) but, for sometime, I have expressed doubt in posts that we will be returning, anytime soon (even with the arrival of vaccines), to a pre-SARS-CoV-2 world. I now find reports that experts, who were originally optimistic that vaccines could help countries achieve 'herd immunity' (nearly eliminating Covid-19 transmission, by a combination of vaccination and previous infection), are coming to the same view (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight-idUSKBN2AV1T1). I am not a travel expert but posted my strong reservations about the likely effectiveness of the UK's quarantine system, aiming to keep variants of Covid-19 out of the country. Gabriel Scally, now describes the scheme as 'England's foolish quarantine system' and says it offers little protection against Covid variants (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/04/uk-quarantine-vaccination-programme-covid-variants). I also posted, generally pessimistic comments, about global heating/climate change (unseasonally pleasant weather worries me); 'cunning plans' by policians to achieve carbon zero by 2050 (when I won't be around); losses of biodiversity (clearly evident in my lifetime); the growth of anti-Science/misinformation (as a strong believer in Education, this upsets me) and the need for strong international cooperation to solve many challenging situations (when sections of the world seem hell-bent on nationalism). The feedback has also generally supported, rather than allayed, my fears in these areas (although I would not claim to be expert in any of them either). Perhaps I really am a Cassandra? Or could it just be that, sometimes, the answers are so obvious, you don't need to be a specialist?

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