AI: A-One or A-Con?

More mixed messages on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Michaela van der Schaar (Director of the Cambridge Centre for AI in Medicine at the University of Cambridge), as one would expect, enthuses about AI-powered personalised medicine. She argues that AI can't replace human professionals (debatable?) but it could transform the way they work. van der Schaar argues that AI can help deal with diagnosis and some of the complexities (subjects showing different responses to the same treatments) in clinical trials. AI could also help speed the complex bureucracy of large organisations, like the UK's National Health Service (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/26/ai-personalise-medicine-patient-lab-health-diagnosis-cambridge). James Wise (Trustee of the thinktank Demos), however, describes how AI created his virtual clone. The clone, using his precise accent, made an apparently enthusiastic sales pitch for a company Wise had never heard of. Wise worries that fraudsters are actually being given more sophisticated ways to trick us, into believing they are someone they are not. Our child urgently needing money? Our bank manager (if they still exist) contacting us about a problem with our account? The police wanting to talk to us? (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/30/money-ai-scam-fraud-fraudsters-trick). Such developments seem scary for many UK folk, as this country already has one of the highest incidences of 'cyber-crime'. It could be especially concerning for elderly citizens like myself, who are said to be uncatered for in the 'digital revolution' (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld5803/ldselect/ldcomm/219/21902.htm). The real truth, however, is that AI is a technology. Technologies can be used for good or bad purposes. There is, of course, an urgent need to ensure that disadvantaged cohorts are not overwhelmed by the speed of developments.

Seeing the Changes 1835

This is definitely Sawwort (Serratula tinctoria) near Loughor Foreshore.

No Artificial Intelligence was Harmed When Writing this Post!

I'm someone who is still teaching at university, after more than 50 years. Currently, teachers are being flooded with information about the potential benefits of AI apps in education. There do seem to be some exciting possibilities. It can save us time and students can be enthused by using it. We are repeatedly warned, however, that AI tools sometimes generate convincing but untrue, output. It's apparently up to the teacher to check veracity, before releasing our material to the students. Will this always be effectively done? Will all teachers be able to distinguish fact from fiction? Apparently, many UK folk over 75, are already having real problems with the brave new digital world (https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2023/jun/29/uk-government-allowing-millions-to-fall-behind-due-to-digital-exclusion). Can we oldies (or anyone else?) really be trusted to pass on AI skills.

A Nice Little Sweetener?

Aspartame is an artificial sweetener, made by combining aspartic acid and phenylalanine. These two amino acids are naturally found in many proteins. Consequently, people will obviously be exposed to them, whether or not they take artificial sweeteners. Since the 1980s, Aspartame has been used to replace sugar in in diet soft drinks, sugar-free chewing gums, some cereals etc. The World Health Organisation's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) is, however, about to classify Aspartame as 'possibly carcinogenic to humans' (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/29/aspartame-artificial-sweetener-possible-cancer-risk-carcinogenic). 'Possibly carcinogenic to humans' is the IARC's lowest risk category for a mutagen (cancer-causing chemical). Evidence for any risk of using Aspartame, appears sparse and somewhat weak. Risk must depend on the daily intake of the material. Intake of virtually any substance, can be linked to health problems, if enough of it is ingested over a short enough time. The health risks of ingesting too much sugar have been evident for decades. High sugar intake can result in obesity. It also markedly increases the risk of developing diabetes. There's currently something of a 'diabetes pandemic'. Some authorities are concerned the IARC's new classification for Aspartame, could scare folk back to sugar. That wouldn't be a good move. There's risk and there's risk!

Flushing Away the Profits?

Thames Water is a privatised English Water Company, serving London and its surrounding area. It's CEO has resigned and it's been announced the company is in a £10 billion 'black hole'. Thames Water, like its sister English Water Companies, have appeared to have focused all efforts, since privatisation, on massively rewarding their shareholders and CEOs. Water Companies have taken out substantial loans to do this (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/28/thames-water-in-crisis-talks-over-potential-10bn-black-hole-cost-possible-collapse). Now, the Water Companies are facing demands to update their Victorian infrastructure as well as ceasing discharging raw sewage into rivers and coastal waters. Bankruptcy seems a quite attractive option, as all profits have already been creamed off. The punters/ tax payers can pay for any upgrades.

With the the Speed of a Constipated Snail?

In recent times, the UK government has been excessively keen to 'big itself up', as a 'world leader' in the fight against climate change. Nothing appears, however, to be further from the truth. The government's own Climate Change Committee have submitted a report revealing that the UK government is missing all its targets in the 'plan' to reach net zero (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jun/28/uk-has-made-no-progress-on-climate-plan-say-governments-own-advisers). Those English clearly talk the talk but have never walked the walk. It's dangerous when such 'bullshit rules'. People might be fooled into thinking that something is actually happening!

Seeing the Changes 1834

Teasel (Dipsacus fullonum), looking promising for seed-eating birds at Swansea University's Bay Campus.

Welcome to Wales

The Welsh government are seriously concerned about the country's obesity pandemic. Two thirds of Welsh folk are obese or overweight. This has a major impact on costly medical provision. The Assembly consequently want to ban '2 for 1' supermarket deals of unhealthy foods. They are also looking into popular 'meal deals', that often have excessive calories as well as high levels of sugar and/or salt. Folk eating many 'meal deals'are certain to put on weight (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/27/wales-to-clamp-down-on-junk-food-meal-deals-to-tackle-obesity). This is happening earlier than is planned for England. Money is certainly tight for folk in the current 'cost of living crisis', but poor health could cost them more!

We Are Sailing?

Marine transport currently accounts for circa 3% of global 'greenhouse gas' emissions. Most large ships, currently use heavy diesel oils for their engines. It's been suggested that marine 'greenhouse gas' emissions could be halved, by 2030, without damaging trade (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/26/shipping-emissions-could-be-halved-without-damaging-trade-research-finds). The International Marine Organization suggest a levy of $100 per tonne for marine transport carbon emissions. It's suggested this will incentivise fleet owners to fully explore alternatives, in order to reduce their costs.

Seeing the Changes 1833

At Crymlyn Burrows noted Eyebright (Euphrasia officinallis); Hogweed (Heracieum sphondylium); Bladder campion (Silene vulgaris); Marsh woundwort (Stachys palustris) and Bristly ox-tongue (Picris echinoides) in bloom. Also spotted a first Six-spot Burnet moth (Zygaena filipendulae) pupa; a possible Pyrausta despictata moth; a Small copper (Lycaena phlaeas) and more Dark Green fritillary (Mesoacidalia aglaja) pics showing possible sexual dimorphism, frisky behaviour and feeding frenzy.

'Greening' Rosebank?

Many environmentalists think that the North Sea's Rosebank oil field must remain unexploited, if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided. It seems bizarre, however, that it's suggested that the output from a new Shetland windfarm, could be entirely used to fuel the Rosebank development (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/24/new-windfarm-could-be-used-to-power-north-sea-oilfield). Fuelling Rosebank would be using a 'green' technology to drive carbon dioxide and methane emissions even higher. The financial clout of the petrochemical is likely to win out but the windfarm's output would be better employed, powering people's homes.

No Way to Treat an Alien Intelligence?

Cephalopods (octopus, squids and their relatives) are, by far, the most intelligent of the invertebrates (animals without backbones). Unlike, however, vertebrates these molluscs have failed to attract significant animal welfare protections. Cephalopods appear disadvantaged because they seem almost 'alien' to humans. They use their chromatophores (quickly changing skin pigment cells) to signal to eachother. A squid can, for example, simultaneously signal different things on the left and right hand sides of their bodies (politicians would love to have this skill). Octopuses and squids also don't use sounds that, in mammals, can elicit human pity. It seems rather sad, however, that there are now proposals to farm octopuses for the human table (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/25/a-symbol-of-what-humans-shouldnt-be-doing-the-new-world-of-octopus-farming). One obvious difficulty with octopus farming, is that it's very difficult to know how to environmentally enrich such animals. We really don't know what they 'want'. Certainly, keeping such intelligent animals in vats with lids, 'aint going to do much for their welfare.

Seeing the Changes 1832

In Bynea, plenty of Butterfly bush (Buddleja davidii) but not many butterflies.

Off Their Trolley?

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm, that increases the risk of having a stroke. Circa 1 in 45 people (I'm one) live with this, often-undiagnosed, condition. It's been argued that some groups of potential AF carriers are 'hard to reach'. Most folk, however, are regulars at their local supermarket. A Liverpool John Moore's University study, recruited more than 2000 participants at a Sainsbury store. Participants were asked to hold a supermarket trolley handle for at least 60 seconds. Those handles had been fitted with electrocardiogram (ECG) sensors (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/23/supermarket-trolley-sensors-ecg-atrial-fibrillation-stroke-trial-research). ECG sensor records gave an immediate indication (a tick or a cross) of whether the subject was likely to have AF. Subsequent detailed clinical diagnosis, confirmed that circa 40 of these participants had undiagnosed AF. There seems to be plenty of scope for reaching such people. It just needs a bit of ingenuity. Prevention is always better than a cure!

Seeing the Changes 1831

On the Loughor/Gorseinon border, spotted Sawwort (Serratula tinctoria); Ball mustard (Neslia paniculata) and Meadowsweet (Filipendula ulmaria) in bloom. Hazel (Corylus avellana) was nutty.

Puff: The Magic Dragon

Over the last 3 years, UK Trading Standards officers have seized more than one million illegal vapes. Most of these items, were in the process of being imported from China through London's Heathrow Airport. It's thought, however, that these seizures represent only 'the tip of the iceberg' (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jun/23/millions-of-vapes-seized-in-uk-in-three-years-data-shows). The illegal vapes are often described in accompaning documentation, as 'atomisers'. They often have a elevated nicotine content, as well as high levels of lead, nickel and chromium. These vapes are generally brightly-coloured and come in flavours, designed to appeal to underage children. These vapes are, consequently, highly addictive and will damage developing physiological systems. Vaping in the UK, is consequently storing up health problems for our next generation. The best advice (from the NHS) is, if you don't smoke, don't start vaping. This message is, however, likely to have little traction, when up against kiddy media influencers on TikTok etc.

How Deep Is Your Love?

The richest 1% of humans produce 15% of the planet's annual climate-altering, 'greenhouse gas' emissions. A mega-rich sub-cohort will account for a disproportionately large portion of this total. One of the ways they do this, is to pay for expensive 'experiences'. These include 'space tourism'. This, essentially, involves paying millions of dollars for a few minutes of weightlessness. Such experiences, of course, generate astronomical masses of 'greenhouse gases'. One now should add to this, 'deep sea tourism experiences'. This 'industry' has come to prominence, with the recent Titan 'tragedy'. Four of the 5 folk on that submersible, each paid $200,000, to view the 'famous' wreck of the Titanic (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/titanic-sub-us-navy-james-cameron-detected-likely-implosion-titan-submersible). Wall-to-wall media interest was generated. State-of-the-art ships and planes, with impressive technologies, searched for days for any sign of the submersible. The passengers on the submersible have now been described as 'true explorers'. This is in marked contrast to declining media interest in the protracted drowning of circa 750 'immigrants', including women and children. These folk were left, by 'smugglers', aboard a vastly overcrowded fishing vessel, that sank near Greece (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/greek-shipwreck-migrant-boat-more-bodies-found). But these folk weren't rich. They probably weren't even frequent flyers. They certainly weren't risking their lives for the experience. They weren't true explorers.

Seeing the Changes 1830

An interesting catch in my Loughor garden moth trap. It included a small backswimmer (Cymatia coleoptrata); an unidentified noctuid; lots of micros (Tischeria marginea); a Buff tip (Phalera bucephala); 2 Lunar underwing (Noctua orbona); 2 Peacock (Macaria notata); 9 Willow beauty (Peribatodes rhomboidaria) and a Coronet (Craniophora ligustri).

Seeing the Changes 1829

In Loughor, Lords and ladies (Arum maculatum) berries had ripened. In Bynea, spotted my first Small tortoiseshell (Aglais urticae) of the year. Not much activity on the nettle food-plant round here.

'Snowflakes' in Hell?

Ministers of Australia, Canada and New Zealand collectively opine that the "climate crisis is this century's biggest threat". They're not, of course, wrong. The surprising thing, is that they had to say it (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/commentisfree/2023/jun/22/the-climate-crisis-is-this-centurys-biggest-threat-we-need-a-global-finance-pact-that-reflects-the-task-ahead). These ministers suggest that all International financial institutions (banks, pension funds, investment bodies etc) need come together to solve this existional threat. Such a move might well be helpful. There are, however, a number of problems with this idea. The first is, that virtually all financial institutions operate to maximise profits (this is one reason why major banks lavishly invest in petrochemicals). A second difficulty is, that these 'three amigos' all represent rich, developed, 'westernised', English-speaking democracies. Many countries don't follow this model. The ministers are right, that the climate crisis can't be solved by any single government (no matter how altruistic). Getting, however, world-wide integrated and effective action appears unlikely (everyone wants to be a 'winner', so we might all lose?). A final difficulty is, that it's not only bank portfolios needing to change. 'Solving' the climate crisis also requires major changes in individual behaviour. We need to alter how we feed, how we travel, how we perform agriculture, how we share resources etc, etc. If that's going to happen, some very effective convincing is required. Not everyone has the choices, available to folk in the developed nations. It's a bit sad that the ministers claim it's still possible to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. That particular horse seems to have bolted sometime ago!

A Nature Reserve? That's Just the Place to Dump Junk PPE!

A 'mountain' of unused Personal Protection Equipment (PPE), has mysteriously appeared close to the Testwood Lakes Nature Reserve, on the edge of Hampshire's New Forest (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/19/mysterious-pile-of-dumped-ppe-angers-people-in-calmore-new-forest-hampshire). The 'mountain' has thousands of boxes, some labelled 'apron' and 'made in China'. 'Locals' are not at all happy as the council will have to fund its removal. Some folk (often with a zero track record) became 'fast track' multi-millionaires, by obtaining PPE for the government in the Covid-19 pandemic. It seems that at least one of them can't be bothered to dispose of surplus (probably inadequate) material appropriately. Doing so might cut into profits.

Seeing the Changes 1828

More blooms at Swansea University Bay Campus. Water mint (Mentha aquatica) and Teasel (Dipsacus fullonum). Goldfinches will be happy.

Sleep On It?

A study, largely carried out by workers at University College of London, suggests that taking a brief nap in the day reduces human brain shrinkage. The study looked at data from 0.5 million folk, aged 40-69, on the UK Biobank. It essentially compared subjects who were genetically predisposed to nap with counterparts prone to 'powerwork' through their day. The study suggested that napping resulted in a reduction in age-related brain shrinkage (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jun/20/short-daytime-naps-may-keep-brain-healthy-as-it-ages-study-says). The study suggests napping delays the impact of aging on neurological functioning. Taking a day-time nap appeared especially beneficial to folk with neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimers and Parkingsons. It's worth a try. Yawn.

When Hot Means Not

An extreme marine heatwave has hit the UK's North Sea. In one area, the sea temperature has risen by 4 degrees Centigrade. This may make the sea sound inviting to we landlubbers. The consequences for marine life, however, are potentially devastating (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/marine-heatwave-uk-sea-temperatures-increase-ocean-hvh7kvh2g). The amount of oxygen contained in seawater is strongly dependent on water temperature. Elevating temperature by 4 degrees, dramatically reduces oxygen content. Sessile (fixed) organisms would be likely to die. Organisms that can swim would still find it difficult to move to a less challenging environment in time. It's somewhat poetic that this heatwave is occurring in the North Sea, where there's still considerable debate about the advisability of exploiting new deposits of oil and gas. Burn more hydrocarbons and the seas are going to get even hotter. Bad news for the organisms that try to live there.

Seeing the Changes 1827

Meanwhile in Crymlyn Burrows. Common centaury (Centaurium erythraea) was blooming whilst Robberflies mated. In addition to the usual Lepidoptera, spotted Cinnabar moth (Tyria jacobaeae) larvae on Ragwort. Silver 'Y' moths (Autographa gamma) and Ringlet butterflies (Aphantopus hyperantus) were also active. Got more lateral and dorsal pictures of Dark green fritillaries (Mesoacidalia aglaja).