Thursday, 2 July 2020

Air Bridge to Oblivion?


There has been much excitement, in the media, about a UK government scheme to establish 'air bridges' with an ever-expanding number of world destinations enabling the people of our country can have their foreign holidays in spite of Covid-19 (https://www.thesun.co.uk/travel/11999645/air-bridge-countries-full-list-quarantine-holidays/). I have to initially admit that, although I worry about my carbon footprint, I deeply appreciate foreign travel and would dearly love to see friends in locations, ranging from Hawaii to the Himalayas. I will probably be labelled a 'doomster and gloomster' but logic dictates that I have to point out some issues associated with this wheeze. The first is that we have to remind ourselves why the UK experience of the pandemic (in terms of infections and mortalities) was so different from other European countries. Unlike France, Italy and Spain, where infections tended to be localised near major cities, the virus seemed to reach all parts of the UK. The most likely reason for this was the official belief, at an initial stage, that the UK had a window of opportunity, being some '4 weeks behind Italy'. So nothing much initially changed (air travel, pop concerts, major sports gathering et cetera all continued as before). What also happened (reportedly) is that thousands of people from the UK returned home from holidays (e.g. skiing in Italy), without being checked. They included every age group and were returning to all areas of the UK. It is certain, that in some cases, they inevitably carried the virus to all regions of the country. In addition, because some individuals had mild or no symptoms of Covid-19 infection, this wasn't picked up (test and trace was, and still is I think, very rudimentary). So we had nothing like a 4 week window to prepare for the pandemic.  There is a possibility that air bridges could produce a repeat (hopefully at a much lower level ) of that early disastrous surge. The thing about foreign holidays is 1) People often travel to their destinations in big crowded groups (air, for example, is recirculated in planes); 2) Holiday-makers include all generations from the very young to the very old; 3) Folk, on holiday, often operate under unfamiliar circumstances and do things they wouldn't do at home and 4) Many of them go to accommodation that they share with lots of other folk (in resorts, hotels or even cruise ships).  For air bridges to work effectively, we would have to be sure that all our 'partners' were giving us accurate information about Covid-19 in their countries (individuals might well worry about the economic consequences). We would also have to have a really effective test and trace mechanism to deal with any subsequent outbreaks (which, because of the nature of the returnees, could be in schools, factories, offices, hospitals, care homes et cetera). Information on travel and contacts would need to be maintained for a relatively long time period (to cover asymptomatic spread and inaccurate information). I well appreciate that the people who run airlines, resorts, hotels, travel agencies et cetera are desperate for foreign holidays to resume (as are many folk who just want a holiday), but I do think that it is premature to start them up so widely at the present time without initial trialling.

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