Friday 11 September 2020

Another Focus for Confirmation Bias in the UK?

Confirmation Bias is a topic we have dealt with previously (without giving it an actual name). It can be defined as "the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors". Until recently, it has largely been a concern of the behavioural sciences where 'absolute' measurement is difficult (and is certainly also an issue in some medical studies, especially when they are getting into new areas as with a novel pandemic). More recently, marked evidence of confirmation bias in society has become evident with the arrival and almost ubiquitous (by many groups) use of the internet (many people, especially the young, now get all their 'news' online). An unfortunate tendency of online life has been its tendency to divide people into 'camps', where confirmation bias prevents any meaningful dialogue between the 'opposing' groups. Until recently, in the UK, 'Brexit' (the leaving, by Britain, of the European Union) has been the major polariser, dividing (roughly equally) people into 'Leavers' and 'Remainers'. This has led to an awful amount of 'stress' and major breakdowns in relationships within family groups, as well as amongst former friends. Sometimes the only way of dealing with the problem, has been to agree not to talk about it. Now, reportedly, we have a new, even more powerful divide, where confirmation bias can further force society apart. A survey of 10,000 people has revealed that the lockdown rules for dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic really divide people (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/covid-lockdown-rules-more-divisive-than-brexit-survey-finds). Some of the subjects, who favour wearing face masks, actually hate people who refuse to don them (many more find the non-wearer's behaviour reprehensible and anti-social). The same judgements apply to other lockdown rules, including social spacing and limiting the size/constitutions of groups. People who don't conform to the rules, vary in their expressed reasoning, ranging from a belief that their 'rights' are being interfered with by the 'impositions', to having arrived at the conclusion that the dangers of the infection have been 'over-hyped' (and, hence, the rules are meaningless). I suspect that the 'antis' would have a low opinion of what they might describe as the 'sheep-like' behaviour of the conformers. This divide (which is not helped by prominent people ignoring the rules), is a clear danger for social cohesion at a difficult time (when we need it). Covid-19 is a medical threat that endangers different groups to variable extents (bizzarely, the vulnerable elderly, who are retired, are the keenest on 'people going back to work'). Lockdown rules are also easier to apply in some situations than others (e.g. having a big garden is a clear asset). The pandemic has had major effects on the economy (of people, businesses and the country). It has also been a major disrupter of education in schools and universities. It has wrecked people's plans in terms of attending sporting events, going to the theatre or cinema, eating in restaurants, taking a foreign holiday, having a wedding, going to a funeral etc, etc. There are plenty of variables for confirmation bias to act upon to make us 'lunge at eachother's throats'. I wonder if climate change is going to be the next big divider (it has already been bubbling away in the background- perhaps we have simply been distracted by Covid-19)?

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