Tuesday 22 September 2020

Scientists Kick the Covid Football?

There are reports of two multiple authored letters from groups of eminent scientists with advice for the UK government on tackling the 2nd wave of Covid-19 infections (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/22/scientists-disagree-over-targeted-versus-nationwide-measures-to-tackle-covid). These, in my view, are getting dangerously close to advocating policy rather than simply offering technical advice (and, to a certain extent, confusing the general public about what science can really offer). I don't really think that the two groups are using different information. It's just where the emphasis is placed. Both groups accept that Covid-19 is a dangerous infection, broadly effecting different cohorts of the population in different ways. Both, presumably, see some deaths as being inevitable (perhap it's just a matter of where?). One group of letter writers (Greenhalgh and Collegues) broadly approves of the government's 'whack a mole' policy (essentially creating local lockdowns, where test and trace has seen a surge in cases). They emphasise that, inspite of a popular belief that Covid-19 is only severe in older people and those with 'underlying health conditions' (whatever they may be), the virus can cause death and severe illness in all age groups. We don't current seem to have anything like a precise knowledge for the outcomes of infection in 'long-haul' patients. The other group of scientist scribes (the Gupta-Heneghan-Sikora axis), broadly think the government is going down the wrong track. They point out, that imposing lockdowns and restrictions, whenever case numbers rise, is based on data that is not very robust anyway. They also state that this action will lead "to significant harm across all age groups, which likely offsets any benefits". In their utilitarian argument, they are presumably thinking of the illness and death caused by failures to treat other conditions (e.g. cancer), the effects on mental health (including suicides), the violence that can occur in lockdown etc, etc. It all leaves me (one of the over 65's) in a confused place (even if I am a scientist)!

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What's In a Critter's Name? 11. Comma butterfly

The Comma butterfly ( Polygonia c-album) gets its name from the punctuation-like mark, on the underside of its wings.