Saturday, 19 September 2020

Donald J. Trump (Inadvertently?) Spoke the Truth

Mr Trump has a Science Advisor (a Meteorologist who claims that climate change isn't within his expertise), so he must have been having lessons. The President was actually right, when he said (of climate change) "I don't think science knows". This is because (as I hope all my Foundation level science students know, because I feel that I am teaching my grandma to suck eggs here), the scientific method doesn't deal in absolute truisms. You can be dealing with the possible evolution of species, climate change, the spread of Covid-19 or developing a drug to help patients with Alzheimer's disease and the approach is basically the same. Observations are made and one attempts to come up with a testable hypothesis to explain what was observed or detected. 'Testable' naturally means that you can't invoke deities, angels, spirits or fairies as being active agents. The test is carried out and one determines the probability (how likely the result was arrived at by chance alone). If this 'P'value is high, the hypothesis is rejected and you try something else. If the 'P' value is low (and there are acceptable grades of lowness), you continue with the hypothesis and devise other tests. Remember, however, that you can always get unusual results by chance alone, especially if the number of tests is extraordinarily large. This is presumably the reason why many people continue to enter the National Lottery. Naturally, scientists can get more confident about their claims, when other reliable scientists independently replicate the results. If there is overwhelming support, from the scientific community, for a hypothesis, it can make the transition to becoming a theory (so, you don't tend to have competing theories, in spite of what the media claim- it's the hypotheses that 'fight'). Pretty obviously, it is easier to test certain hypotheses (simple observations, with few variables) than others (especially, when long time periods or complex, multi-factored phenomena are involved). The science, however, is always a statement of probabilities, rather than established 'fact'. Theories can be (and are) changed, if new facts or insights become available. If you 'follow the science', however, it's illogical to reject certain areas because they don't fit your world view. As Arthur Conan-Doyle got his character Sherlock Holmes to say "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". So, to return to the Trump quote, science doesn't 'know' but a clear consensus of its practioners 'believe it to be the case (with a high degree of Probability)'. The precautionary principle suggests that you should take note.

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