Saturday, 12 February 2022

Doctors Heal Thyselves?

The NHS backlog of 'non-urgent' operations/procedures in England is currently around 6 million. This backlog could, however, reach more than 10 million, before it is scheduled to come down, in 2024 (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/feb/09/englands-hospital-waiting-lists-may-exceed-10-million-by-2024-ministers-told). This raises several issues. The first is are we actually in a 'post-Covid' world? Omicron may have been less damaging than was feared but a) it is still pressuring medical services and b) 'rolling the dice', by early relaxing of all Covid restrictions, isn't going to help (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/11/we-got-lucky-with-omicron-boris-johnson-is-rolling-the-dice-again-covid-nhs). NHS workers appear a) currently shattered by their Covid experiences and b) overworked due to staffing shortages. Clearing the backlog is going to be neither easy nor cheap. The second issue is that, to clear the backlog, the UK needs to train many more doctors and nurses. The attrition rate is very high with record levels of 'burnout' and early retirement. Traditional training, however, takes many years and doesn't always produce functional staff for the longer term. One might ask whether the situation could be helped by available innovations? 'Expert systems' for diagnosis and treatment have been developed in a number of areas. Perhaps it is possible to reduce some demands on staff by utilising these, with specifically-trained individuals, for more 'routine' procedures? This might, at least, help in the short term.

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