Saturday, 9 January 2021

Wait and See Can be Problematic?

A number of the countries that have dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic relatively efficiently (e.g. Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan), appear to be in no rush to start vaccination programmes (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/why-the-delay-the-nations-waiting-to-see-how-covid-vaccinations-unfold). In one sense, this is understandable, as these countries have efficient health services as well as good track-trace and isolate systems. In some cases, they also have natural geographical barriers, reducing the likelihood of re-importing the viral infection. These features mean that their current rates of Covid-19 infections are relatively low. The postulated reason for not starting to vaccinate yet, is that they want to see how other people in other countries react first (vaccine hesitancy rules?). It's not inappropriate to want more data on the efficacies and potential side-effects of the plethora of different vaccines. There are, however, some potential downsides to this strategy. One is that they might eventually find it difficult to overcome vaccine hesitancy (espcially with antivaxx sentiment on social media), when they do decide that the time is right. Another is, that delaying hitting the virus in all populations simultaneously, increases the chances of the agent mutating. By the time they decide to vaccinate, new forms of the virus may have arisen that are resistant to the available vaccines (so the data they have waited for becomes redundant). Finally, they will all hope, eventually, to open up to the rest of the world.

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