Monday, 20 September 2021

British Baby Bust?

The 'thinktank' Social Market Foundation (SMF) have published a report entitled Baby Bust and Baby Boom: Examining the Liberal Case for Pronatalism (https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/sep/20/british-baby-shortage-could-lead-to-economic-decline-says-thinktank). The SMF point out that the current British birthrate (1.58) is nearly half that seen in the 1960's (2.93). They put this down to the high cost of childcare (accounting for more than 20% of incomes). The SMF also report that currently there are around 3 over 65-year olds for every 10 'workers'. They predict that, by 2060, the ratio will be almost 4:10. The SMF suggest that this 'baby shortage' could lead to 'economic stagnation'. They advocate the government bringing in policies to encourage citizens to have more babies. There are several issues to consider here. The first, of course, is 'does the planet actually require more humans'? Even with failing birthrates in parts of the world, declining natality will not cause extinction of our species. It is predicted that, one of the effects of climate change, will be to force substantial numbers of people to move from their current locations. Immigration is, obviously, a 'hot' issue in many parts of the world. A second issue is 'is economic growth a proper focus for all planning?' It has been argued that the world's obsession with economic growth is ultimately unsustainable. There are finite resources. A third issue is 'is the sole function of babies to create workers'? That seems to treat countries like giant bee hives. We should certainly be considering the possible roles of AI here. We may not need as many human workers. A final issue is 'are babies created solely to care/provide for the over 65's'? There must be other ways of doing this, without stimulating a new generation of 'baby boomers'? Having said all that, I agree that child care is currently too costly in the UK for many parents. Perhaps it's more a question of making it more likely that all children (with the assistance of their parents and the state) have the opportunity to develop to their maximal potential?

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Birder's Bonus 241

Noted a Curlew ( Numenius arquata ) on the Loughor estuary at Bynea.