Commercial Aviation As We Chase Carbon Zero

In order to achieve carbon zero and save the planet, commercial aviation needs to be urgently fixed. After a Covid pandemic-induced decline, aviation anticipates a global return to 2019 passenger numbers, by 2023. That, the airlines hope, will be followed by further 'incremental' rises in passenger numbers. At current rates, that could mean a tripling of aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This would be a nail in the planet's coffin. Jocelyn Timperley highlights 6 intrinsic problems of air travel. He also speculates on our chances of solving each (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/05/the-six-problems-aviation-must-fix-to-hit-net-zero). Firstly, Timperley notes that commercial aviation currently depends on high energy, carbon dioxide-emitting fuels (like kerosene). Most of the generated carbon dioxide is problematically emitted at relatively high altitudes. Although there has been lots of speculation about developing 'cleaner' fuels (in some cases very debatable), they are unlikely he says to make up more than a tiny proportion by 2030. Timperley thinks such fuels are actually unlikely to have a significant impact until 2050. That would be much too late. A second problem noted by Timperley, can be termed 'the non-carbon dioxide issue'. It appears that emissions like nitrogen oxides and contrail formation may have much bigger impacts on climate than had been assumed. Timperley believes that solutions here are unlikely, as the problem has hardly even been considered thus far. Timperley's third issue is 'the frequent flyer problem'. He points out that 1% of the world's population generate 50% of carbon dioxide from commercial aviation. In the UK, for example, about 15% of the population take 70% of all flights. Fifty percent of the UK's folk don't fly at all in any given year. Timperley notes that 'frequent flyer levies' have been advocated as a solution. Governments don't, however, seem very keen on these. Levies may also make little difference to rich folk or the companies that often pay for their flights. Timperley calls the fourth problem 'the policy problem'. He warns that international aviation sits outside the Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris Agreement only looks at a country's domestic emissions. Timperley points to the setting up of a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Many environmental groups, however, believe that CORSIA is currently far too weak. The fifth issue can be termed 'the new middle-class problem'. Timperley says that developing countries in Asia, Africa and the Middle East are expected to show the highest rates of growth in air flights over the next 20 years. He is of the opinion that developed countries must lead by example, if they are to exert any pressure on developing countries to reduce airline emissions. Timperley's 6th and final issue is 'the supersonic problem'. He records that some airlines (e.g. United Airlines) are still intent on buying aircraft, more polluting than those currently on offer. These include planes developed by Boom Supersonic, designed to fly very quickly at really high altitudes (where emissions have their most powerful effects on global heating). Timperley regards supersonics as a 'disaster' for climate change and maintains that they must meet the same environmental standards as normal passenger planes. Commercial aviation is clearly an environmentally hot potato!