Cop Out?

Most senior delegates (from the UK, the UN or the USA), who will be attending Cop26 in Glasgow, 'privately' think a breakthrough to 'fulfil the aspiration of the Paris agreement' is unlikely. The Paris agreement aimed to keep global heating down to 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-Industrial levels. A postscript to Paris, asked countries to pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for their emissions reductions every 5 years. There are now plans to ask for NDC's annually (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/sep/27/cop26-climate-talks-will-not-fulfil-aims-of-paris-agreement-key-players-warn). It should be remembered that the 1.5 degree 'safe limit' was always only an 'educated guess' by climate scientists. Things seem to be moving faster and harder than was ever envisaged in 2015. Most senior delegates seem to accept that 'greenhouse gas' emissions from major economies this decade, will fall well short of those needed to limit global heating. Worryingly, China (a major polluter) has never filed an NDC. They, along with the French, will also have been deeply irritated by the recent Aukus pact between Australia, the UK and the US. The pact involves sharing technology on nuclear submarines. The timing of the pact is, at best, poor. It looks as if the Australians are being 'rewarded' and the Chinese threatened. The Australian Prime Minister is a 'naughty boy'. He has no intention of doing anything about climate change. It looks as if neither the Australian PM nor the Chinese President will travel to Cop26. Getting meaningful agreements on 'greenhouse gas' emissions at Cop26 may be even harder than was predicted by the 'pessimists'. You can't get meaningful action on climate, if some of the 'big players' are absent.