Don't Stand So Close to Me!

Yet another 'Lancet' paper appears to have issues. They published a study from McMaster University in Ontario, Canada looking at data from papers in journals on the impact of social distance on the risk of viral transmission of Covid-19. This is being considered as policy makers attempt to weigh up the risk of moving from (in the UK) the current recommended 2 metre spacing to a more 'relaxed' 1 metre distance. Pretty obviously, people in a number of economic sectors (especially restaurants and bars) are very keen to reduce social distancing 'rules'. They point to the Lancet paper's conclusion that changing from 2 to 1 metre only increases the risk of viral transmission by a few percentage points. A number of statisticians have, however, claimed that the study is deeply flawed, especially as it assumes that the same proportional change occurs when you go from 0-1 as you do from 1-2 metres (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/14/scientists-report-flaws-in-who-study-on-two-metre-distancing). It is thought that publications on Covid-19 are currently being rather rushed out before full checking in a refereeing  process. This is understandable given the desire for information on this new disease. It is, however, especially problematic as some groups (politicians and business folk) will always seize on any piece of information that seems to support their preference (whether they understand it or not).