Monday, 1 June 2020

Special K?

We have all heard much about the 'R' number and its importance in limiting the spread of the Covid-19  virus. 'R' essentially tells you how many contacts, on average, people carrying Sars Cov-2, are  infected by those individuals (so, if it is less than 1, the virus is declining in the population). With people emerging from lockdown, another measure 'K' might become more important (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/k-number-what-is-coronavirus-metric-crucial-lockdown-eases). 'K' measures the variance (which can be quite large) in the numbers of actual infections produced by different people. Such individuals are often (perhaps inappropriately) labelled as 'super spreaders' but this is unlikely to simply reflect a fault of the individual's behaviour. It may rather be a consequence of the circumstances in which that person has to operate. Pretty obviously, people who are forced into close proximity with large numbers of colleagues, are likely to spread the virus more widely. A problem with the emergence from lockdown (especially, if not monitored effectively) is that it may well result in local surges  in the infection rate as such higher risk individuals become active in their communities. .

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