Stopping a Viral Stampede

It does seem a truism, that pandemics are only understood by looking backwards. An interesting article (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/31/covid-turning-point-pandemic-unstoppable) has looked at the 'takes' of a number of viral epidemiologists in the US and UK (so this account has a focus on the experiences of those two countries) with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic. This essentially covers the period from the first recognition of the outbreak, in Wuhan, in December 2019, to the end of 2020. The scientists agree, there was early recognition in their specialist circles, that this was 'the big one' (although the WHO have since claimed, there might be bigger ones to follow). They believe, however, that policy circles were only geared to respond to an influenza pandemic, rather than a novel coronavirus. The scientists pose the question of whether there were missed 'stopping points', when action could have greatly limited the spread of the virus. Being scientists, they differ in their interpretations of the timelines of viral transmission but agree that a lack of concrete efforts in the UK and the US, resulted in chances being missed. Worobey et al. of Oxford University, provide a striking example of apparently flawed thinking. They point out that, early in the pandemic, Chinese citizens were banned from travel to the US. Simultaneouly, however, 40,000 US citizens, based in China, were repatriated (largely without checks), to locations throughout North America. At face value, this seems a very effective way of widely facilitating the spread of the virus throughout that country. The UK got early warning of the outbreak of the virus in Northern Italy. Their failure to consider what this might mean in terms of viral import to the UK, was probably another missed opportunity. These scientists agree that a failure to learn from our mistakes would be criminal. They also suggest that mutation tracking of viruses is now essential.