Monday, 11 October 2021

Is An Increase in Ambitions Enough to Save the Planet?

Sounding optimistic has to be a integral part of John Kerry, the US Climate Envoy's job. He expects "big announcements from key players" at the UN Cop26 meeting, starting in Glasgow on the 31st of October (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/11/john-kerry-cop26-climate-summit-starting-line-rest-of-decade). Kerry maintains that an increase in ambition to cut the emissions of 'greenhouse gases', is evident. He admits, however, that these ambitions currently fail to meet the aims of the Paris Accord. Signatories to the Paris Accord undertook to limit any mean temperature increase of the planet, to 2 degrees Centigrade above pre-Industrial levels. The Accord also had an aspiration to actually limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Centigrade. There will be around 120 'world leaders' in Glasgow. They will be expected to pledge Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on their country's emissions. NDCs will be annually reviewed. Kerry seems to expect ambitious NDCs, to pressurise emissions laggards to 'do the right thing'. It could, of course, have the opposite effect. The laggards could calculate they don't need to do much, as 'keener' countries will pick up their shortfalls. One can't say too many times that 'ambitions' and actual reductions are not the same thing. Achieving the Paris Accord, requires a decline in carbon dioxide emissions of at least 45%, this decade! Scientists now widely accept that a 2 degree Centigrade rise in global temperature, will be too problematic. In spite of this, emissions are currently at record highs. Many people are also pushing schemes that will further elevate emissions. Ambitions alone, won't save the planet.

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