Sunday 10 December 2023

Keeping 1.5 (Sort Of) Alive?

It was agreed at the Paris Cop meeting in 2015, to attempt to restrict global heating to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels, rather than 2.0. Half a degree doesn't sound much. Climate change specialists, in different areas, were asked about the likely differences between 1.5 and 2.0 of global heating. Just a few striking comparisons are listed here (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/08/what-happens-if-the-15c-target-for-global-heating-is-missed). They predicted that major drought, storm and flooding events would be more than four times more likely at 2.0 than at 1.5. The life-supporting 'bioservices' provided by the natural environment, would also be more disrupted. At 2.0, 18% of insect species (including pollinators), 16% of plants and 8% of vertebrates are projected to lose half their habitats. These losses, are twice those likely to happen at 1.5. Although coral reefs in the Caribbean and western Indian Ocean would inevitably disappear at 1.5, 10-30% of the world's reefs are likely to remain in good health. At 2.0, however, reef survival goes down to 1-10%, with major impacts on fisheries. There would be an extra sea level rise of at least 10 cm at 2.0, resulting in an extra 10 million folk being placed at risk of repeated flooding and storm surges. All these changes would be compounded. Food insecurity would be greater (driving migrations?) at 2.0 than at 1.5. This would be especially the case for small island states and places like southern Africa. Current trends suggest, however, the planet is on track to heat up by way more than 2.0 C!

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