It does seem remarkable that Ofqual didn't seem to appreciate (or care?) that their algorithm, for adjusting 'A' level grades would seriously damage the higher educational chances of disadvantaged students whilst giving a further boost to private schools. In deed, a statistically-minded parent (Huy Duong) had already done the calculation for them, using earlier year's data from his son's school (https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/14/punishment-by-statistics-the-father-who-foresaw-a-level-algorithm-flaws). He had estimated that almost 40% of A* to D grades would be lower than the values predicted by teachers (which turned out to be close to the actual figure). I think it was ridiculous to believe that applying an algorithm to 'educated guesses' was ever going to be a fair method of evaluating the potential of actual students. The disadvantaged have been disadvantaged by the prior history of school or college they had to attend, their family's socio-economic background, often by a lack of computing equipment (promised but not always delivered) and now by a statistical 'fix' (to 'prevent grade inflation'). For many, the examinations (which didn't happen this year) were their one chance to demonstrate that they were 'better' than the status assigned to them. The absence of examinations meant we needed to develop a fairer process for assessing potential (and 'A' levels have never been a good predictor of performance at degree level).
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