Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics?

A specialist care home study unit of the London School of Economics (LSE) has calculated that more than 22,000 care home residents (to say nothing about the staff) in England and Wales may have died, directly or indirectly, between 13th March and 1st May, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/coronavirus-real-care-home-death-toll-double-official-figure-study-says). This is more than double the current official figure. The unit point out that the official figure is based on declarations of the care homes that mention the viral infection (there are problems with identifying the disease and tests may not be conducted). Indirect deaths caused by Covid-19 include residents who have failed to seek help for urgent medical conditions due to concerns about contracting the infection in hospital as well as people who may not have been effectively monitored in their isolation rooms (absences of care home staff are currently running at between 10 and 20% of the work-force). The LSE number is based on excess deaths (the figure over and above that that would be typical at this time of the year). They also note that more than 40% of care homes in England and Wales report that they are not confident about their supplies of Personal Protective Equipment (and that could influence the intensity of monitoring and care).