Saturday 11 December 2021

Plan Z Needed?

The Omicron variant is out-competing Delta. By the end of December 2021, it could account for 50% of UK Covid19 infections. It has been spine-chilling to hear various policians from the current ruling party, say that they can't support the government, moving to its Plan B in England, 'because no convincing evidence has been presented to support this development'. Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (who are also part of the UK's Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies) have been doing a spot of modelling. They found that, if only the very modest Plan B changes were brought in, there could be another 75000 deaths in England, by the end of April 2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists). The modelling group's most optimistic scenario for a Plan B- only England, yielded 2000 hospital admissions each day. This would generate a total of 175,000 hospital admissions between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022! There would be almost 25,000 extra deaths! I repeat, this is the optimistic scenario. Do Plan B-sceptics really believe there is insufficient evidence to bring in its modest remedial changes? It actually seems very likely that much more draconian measures will be needed, to have any hope of containing the impact of the vaccine-resistant Omicron variant. Would an extra 25,000 to 75,000 extra deaths in 5 months, be acceptable collateral damage in the 'battle to save the economy'?

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