Now Equivalent to a Coin Toss?

At Glasgow's Cop26 the mantra was 'to strive to keep 1.5 alive'. It was seen important to attempt to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-Industrial levels. The 1.5 degree rise 'target' had been, somewhat arbitrarily, judged in Paris to be an upper 'safe' limit (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/09/climate-limit-of-1-5-c-close-to-being-broken-scientists-warn). The global average temperature rise is already 1.1 degrees Centigrade above pre-Industrial levels. In 2015, there was a 0% chance of the 1.5 degree 'target' being exceeded in the following 5 years. In 2020, that risk was 20%. In 2021, the probability had risen to 40%. Scientists now calculate that the probability of surpassing the 1.5 degrees Centigrade global heating limit, in the next 5 years, is 50%. Heads or tails, anyone? By 2026, there will be a 93% probability that one year in the following 5, will be the hottest ever recorded since humans appeared on the planet. This seems to be what they call 'a racing certainty'?