Early Closing Time For Fossil Fuel Technologies?

It depends on how optimistic you are about carbon capture technologies. A study in Environment Research Letters assumes, an at scale, development of carbon capture would be 'a risky gamble'. It, consequently, leaves carbon capture out of the equation. The options for dealing with fossil fuels then become very constrained (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/17/shut-down-fossil-fuel-production-sites-early-to-avoid-climate-chaos-says-study). The Environment Research Letters study looked at the current 25,000 oil and gas fields. It added data from existing coalmines. These fossil fuels, when fully exploited and burned, would add 936 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. That is 25 years of global emissions at its current rate. Scientists agree that emissions must fall by 50% by 2030 for there to be a chance of limiting climate change. That means that current production of fossil fuels is already geared to generate too much carbon dioxide! Halting new extraction projects (already resisted by some people, using the Ukraine war as their argument) will consequently be insufficient. To stay within our 'carbon budget', the study concludes that some existing fossil fuel licences will have to be removed and production curtailed early. The study calculates that, if 40% of developed fossil fuels stay in the ground, we will have a 50:50 chance of limiting the global temperature rise, to 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-Industrial levels. It's only 50:50 (same as tossing a coin) and we can't be certain 1.5 degrees is 'safe'! Part of the planet's problem is that 90% of developed reserves of fossil fuels are found is just 20 countries. The major 'players' are China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, followed by Iran, India, Indonesia, Australia and Canada. Good luck on getting any agreements there about removals of fossil fuel licences and ceasing extractions! Even if the countries could agree to such things, it will be fought 'tooth and nail' by petrochemical/mining interests.