Tuesday, 24 November 2020

And Just To Add to the Second Coming?

I noted in my previous post that the plan to facilitate travel (by ferry, plane or train) into the UK, by requiring travellers to complete a Passenger Locator Form is distinctly problematic. The trace part of 'Test and Trace' has never worked well and I don't see the tracers being any more effective at keeping tabs on travellers, dispersing themselves to all corners of the Union. Giving passengers the option of paying for a Covid-19 test, in the hope that it is negative and allows them to reduce quarantine from 14 to 5 days is also dodgy. All, except the rather lengthy PCR test, have modest reliabilities (with false negatives and false positives). All these issues, however, apply 'with knobs on' to the plan to safely return University students to their homes for Christmas, in the middle of the second Covid-19 wave. Most students are intended to get a Covid-19 test before leaving their campus. All these tests, however, will certainly be the less reliable, quick versions. Although leaving is generally intended to be 'staggered', thousands of young people (probably including some with a mild or asymptomatic infection?) will be dispersing all over the country. They will largely travel by public transport, drive in groups in cars or be collected, also in cars, by their parents. They will breathe together (not all will wear facemasks?) for extended periods (perfect conditions for viral transmission). Tracking where they all go, would be a nightmare but, I suspect, that nobody is going to even attempt this. Once the students get home, they are going to want to see friends and relatives (and they might well be exchanging more than presents). Because of weather conditions, most of their meetings are likely to be indoors. And the whole process will be repeated, when they return to University in January! The 'R' value could rocket, well before the vaccination programmes are underway.

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