Sunday 11 April 2021

It Might Be a Hotspot Summer?

Averages can be misleading. The figures for the mean number of UK people with a Covid-19 infection have been on an impressive downwards trend (mainly linked to the success of the vaccination programme). The figures, however, 'hide' the existence of 'hotspots', where the rate of infection is much higher than the average. Some scientists have suggested these hotspots could generate a 3rd wave of infections (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/10/virus-hotspots-could-lead-to-third-covid-wave-in-uk-scientists-warn). This is because vaccination isn't the whole story. The protections offered to populations by vaccination, can be quickly 'undone' by changes in people's behaviour. Social distancing and cautious responses will still be needed for extended periods. Covid infection hotspots will only be eliminated by major improvements to test-trace-isolate. Some people, in these hotspots, currently cannot afford to lose any earnings. Many simply end up avoiding taking tests. Tracing of contacts is also poor (people don't want to impoverish their friends). Checks on people who are required to isolate, are routinely cursory. The financial help to individuals to isolate is also minimal. Appropriate behaviour can't be encouraged, when starvation and/or loss of accommodation become consequences.

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