Sunday 18 April 2021

Too Much or Too Little Faith in the Covid-19 Vaccines?

Stephen Buranyi (a writer specialising in Science and the Environment) suggests people are becoming too pessimistic, sometimes believing that the Covid-19 pandemic will never end (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/12/ignore-scare-stories-covid-vaccines-variants-scientific-optimism). Buranyi points out that 'the science' is just 'informed guesses by experts'. Having said that, 'informed guesses by experts' (all that can be done in the event of a new phenomenon), has proved much better at guiding responses than some of the distinctly 'ill-informed guesses' by certain politicians. Buranyi's admitted optimism is clearly based on his belief that the developed vaccines are 'beyond very good'. He suggests the vaccine roll-outs will either drive Sars-CoV-2 down to near extinction or else constrain its force and spread so it becomes a 'manageable concern' (like mumps). Buranyi clearly thinks that talk of dangerous viral variants, with an ability to completely negate the effects of the vaccine roll-outs, is an unhelpful scare story. I hope he is right but this is just another 'informed guess' (one he is entitled to). Speaking on behalf of the Pessimist Party I would just note 1) The vaccines are not currently reaching many populations (and won't do so for some time); 2) We know that some people will refuse the vaccine, even if they have access to it; 3) Wherever the virus can locate (in people or other animals), it can mutate and 4) Humans are expert at spreading viruses around the globe. I think the closest parallel for Covid-19 is seasonal influenza rather than mumps. We get new variants every year. These require a new vaccine and its efficient roll-out. We have neither managed to drive the influenza virus to near extinction nor can we ignore the fact that it kills some of the people it infects. In one sense, the Covid-19 pandemic will never end! Or should I have more faith in the vaccines?

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