When Being Wrong is a Good News Story

Failure to predict things accurately can come back to haunt expert bodies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) got things horribly wrong in 2000 (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/25/insanely-cheap-energy-how-solar-power-continues-to-shock-the-world). The IEA dramatically underestimated the coming importance of solar and wind power, whilst massively inflating predicted demand for coal and oil. In fairness, they were not alone. The story of the rise of photovoltaic solar capacity reads like a soap opera. It involved many players from different countries (especially the US, China and Germany). The efficiencies of solar panels kept on growing. Companies boomed and then went bankrupt, often under strange circumstances. The gigawatt production by photovoltaic systems is now orders of magnitude greater than was predicted by the IEA in 2000. As the man said, "solar power is providing the cheapest energy the world has ever seen". Poor predictions but excellent news in the fight against climate change.