Tuesday, 9 November 2021

Nearly In the Bag?

Some scientists are worried that early political comments from Cop26, in Glasgow, might have left the impression that keeping global heating to 1.5C above pre-Industrial levels was 'nearly in the bag'. The trusted Climate Action Tracker (CAT) suggests, however, the picture is far from rosy (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/09/cop26-sets-course-for-disastrous-heating-of-more-than-24c-says-key-report). The CAT did an analysis, based on the short-term goals of countries for the next decade. In its most optimistic scenario, with full implementation of all announced targets etc, CAT found that the temperature increase would still be 1.8C. It found, however, that real world action based on current policies would produce an increase of 2.7C. So, even the most optimistic scenario doesn't get us to a 1.5C limit and current activity takes us a dangerously high figure. Optimistic noises might have been a little premature?
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