Friday, 26 November 2021

A Covid19 Variant For Christmas?

It's only about a week or so since the UK government were promising its 'travel industry' that requirements for Covid19 testing might well be eased. Just in time for Christmas, however, comes news of the B 1.1.529 variant of the virus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/25/what-do-we-know-about-the-new-worst-ever-covid-variant). The new variant appears to have originated in part of South Africa. B.1.1.529 has been labelled as the 'worst ever Covid variant' (for now?). This version has 32 mutations in its spike protein, about double that seen in the currently-dominant Delta variant. This is worrying, as the spike protein has been used to prime the immune system in most currently-available vaccines. These mutations may, consequently, allow the B 1.1.529 variant to evade the body's immune system, sending us back to square 1 in terms of protection (both by vaccination and previous infection). There is already evidence, from South Africa, that the new variant is highly infective (it generates 'R' values of round 2, unknown since the earliest days of the pandemic). The B 1.1.529 variant has also already been found in Botswana and Hong Kong. The latter case was in a traveller from South Africa. There is a real danger that B 1.1.529 will become the new dominant variant of Covid19. The UK have hurriedly placed several South African countries on to their recently-abandoned 'Red' travel list. There are three obvious take-home messages. Firstly, it was premature to go back to the status quo with respect to foreign travel, even if the 'travel industry' demanded it. Secondly, much more urgency is needed in the 'drive' to get vaccines out to poorer countries around the world. New variants will continue to arise in any location where the virus lingers. Thirdly, antivaxx sentiment needs to be effectively countered. Otherwise, there will be pockets of infection with further mutation possibilities in those unvaccinated by choice. It is appreciated that there will be resistance to all three.

2 comments:

Paul Brain said...

The 'cat' appears to be already out of bag! The first European case of the B 1.1.529 variant of Covid19 has been identified in Belgium. The positive test involved an unvaccinated, young adult woman with mild symptoms. She had travelled to Egypt via Turkey but reported no connections with South Africa. PCR tests are not immediate.

Paul Brain said...

A 'local' problem. Two Welsh rugby teams (Cardiff Blues and Llanelli Scarlets) appear to be stuck in South Africa. They were there for a competition, when South Africa was added to the UK red list for travel. This kind of thing is likely to happen with overseas travel. If the teams are allowed back, as a special dispensation, I do hope they will be quarantined and monitored carefully.

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