Saturday 27 November 2021

The Covid19 Pandemic Looking Bleaker on Two Fronts?

Having had 3 vaccine doses, I had been feeling rather more positive about the Covid19 pandemic. However, two events have hit my confidence. The first is the rapid spread of the new, much-mutated variant of the virus. This has now been labelled the omicron variant. Data will obviously take time to gather. The fear, however, is that this variant may prove to be more transmissible and be able to avoid some of the body's immune responses. Within days of its coming to the world's attention, omicron has been identified in several European countries, including the UK (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/government-imposes-new-restrictions-to-fight-omicron-as-first-cases-found-in-uk). This rapid spread proves that, even with a reflex closure of travel routes, the world-wide spread of the virus cannot be curtailed. Even more worrying is the claim, by some South Africans, that their country is being 'punished' for identifying this new viral variant. Hopefully, information on variants will never be hidden? I can appreciate concerns about the economic damage (it's now South Africa's tourist season). I don't see, however, how a policy of 'wait and see', if the variant is really bad, before restricting travel, could possibly work. My second new concern is around antivaxx material. I had assumed it would be pretty amateur, limited in scope and easy for even the lay person to spot. An old friend, knowing of my interest, however, sent me a link to '30 facts you need to know: your covid cribsheet'. I will not be reposting this link, for obvious reasons. It basically attacks everything we know about the virus and valid medical attempts to treat it/ curtail its spread. It does this using convincing-looking graphs, citing bodies like WHO, making up 'facts' etc. The 'cribsheet' claims, citing 'data' that a) Covid19 has not increased the mortality rate; b) lockdowns don't work; c) intubating people in ICUs is inappropriate and causes the patient damage; d) face-masks offer zero protection and can actually cause infections; e) Covid19 vaccines are highly dubious etc, etc. The worrying thing for me (I appreciate that I may have led a sheltered life) was that the 'cribsheet' looked quite professional. I can now understand how difficult it is going to be to convince the vaccine hesitant. Pretty obviously, Sars-CoV-2 will only be containable if a) the spread of new variants is curtailed and b) the majority of people in all parts of the globe are vaccinated (reducing opportunities for further mutation). Both are looking more distant.

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