Wednesday, 24 November 2021

It's Certainly Possible (But He Would Say That Wouldn't He)?

The Chief Executive of AstraZeneca suggests that the UK's decision to give older people the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine might be the reason it is "not seeing so many hospitalisations relative to Europe, despite a high number of cases" (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/23/astrazeneca-jab-could-reason-britain-faring-better-europe-says/). In the EU, the Oxford vaccine was restricted to the under 65's. This was due to an apparent lack of evidence for its efficacy in older people. The Chief Executive claims the Oxford vaccine produces longer-lasting immunity than some alternatives. The Oxford vaccine is not based on RNA technology, like the Pfizer and Moderna versions It appears to prime antibody-producing T-cells. These primed T-cells, consequently quickly restore fading antibody levels in response to later contact with the Covid19 virus. This is certainly possible. There are, however, many other differences between the UK picture and that seen in major parts of the EU. Firstly, vaccination uptake in the UK, especially in the elderly, was/is higher than in many parts of the EU. Secondly, the highly infective delta variant of Sars-Cov-2 was present earlier in the UK than most of the EU. The UK had a high incidence of this variant in the summer months rather than in Autumn/Winter. It is currently more difficult for EU countries to curtail transmission, as its people gather in confined spaces. Thirdly, after a sluggish start, the UK has had a substantial uptake of booster doses of vaccines. Fourthly, the populations of people with positive Covid19 tests in the UK and the EU may be somewhat different. The UK's population is likely to include a relatively large number of young people. The opening up of schools, without effectively altering ventilation, is likely to have accounted for this. When infected, young people tend to become less ill than older folk. This would reduce the number of hospitisations. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

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