Friday, 19 November 2021

The Shape of the Curve on a Graph Isn't Its Only Feature

The BBC News has made much of a graph plotting the daily cases of Covid19 per million people in Austria; Germany; Italy; the Netherlands and the UK, between June and November (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59343650). The curves for Austria and the Netherlands are clearly exponential in shape. It is always worrying, when the rate of increase by an infective agent causes the curve to become almost vertical. This appears to be the reason why Austria is ordering a complete lockdown and compulsory vaccination. Alarm bells are also ringing in the Netherlands. The curve for Germany is also causing concern as it heads in an exponential direction. The curve for the UK is very different. In June, the daily cases of Covid19 per million in the UK were much higher than in these other European countries. New cases per million appear to have largely plateaued from June to November. One should remember that the area under each curve represents the totalled number of daily cases per million people. Numbers of daily tests will clearly influence such rates. In addition, Covid19 infections do not last for only a day (infections can last days; weeks or months). The area under the UK curve is currently much higher than that for any of the other countries. The fact that the curve is not exponential, shouldn't make Brits too relaxed. The curve needs to be coming down, rather than be fixed at a relatively elevated level!

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