Saturday, 23 July 2022

Covid First Timers

It's not only US President Biden. 55% of people, recently contracting a Covid19 infection in England, were over-60s, who never previously had the virus. This apparently unexpected finding, appears due to a combination of factors ((https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/22/why-do-the-minority-who-havent-had-covid-account-for-most-new-infections). A first infection with Covid19 generally produces the worst symptoms. Subsequent reinfections are generally milder. A likely explanation for the current splurg of first time infections is that, in the initial phase of the pandemic, older folk were often routinely protected. This was by a combination of a) self-isolation; b) early vaccine treatment and c) the behaviour of younger people, who attempted to limit the viral spread to them. 15% of people in England avoided getting a Covid19 infection. Since then, England moved to a policy of 'living with the virus'. Restrictions on mingling, wearing of face masks and routine testing were all removed/ minimised. Around the same time, the highly infective sub-variant BA1 produced a new wave of infections. BA1 was capable of reinfecting people, as it could overcome immune defences developed by vaccination and/or previous infections. Many of these reinfections, initially of younger folk, were asymptomatic or regarded as not being 'test worthy'. People could have been reinfected, without even noticing they had the virus. In March, England had yet another wave of infections with the Omicron BA2 sub-variant. This was rapidly followed, in June, by the BA4 and BA5 sub-variants. These later sub-variants may have disproportionately infected the older cohort of first timers because a) vaccination now offers them only limited protection; b) the over-60's have returned to their social activities (e.g. Bridge clubs and meeting up with their extended families) and c) their younger contacts had high levels of relatively asymptomatic infections. 'Living with the virus' has got no easier. Never having had a Covid19 infection is likely to become increasingly rare.

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