The Mortal Cost of Carbon Emissions

A study in Nature Communications used public health data to assess the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on human deaths (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/29/carbon-emissions-americans-social-cost). The study estimated that, for every 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide pumped into the atmosphere, one person will die prematurely from heatstroke. The study did not consider other consequences of such emissions on health, such as air pollution's effect on respiratory disorders. Three average Americans produce 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide over their lifetimes. Emissions vary greatly. It takes 25 Brazilians or 146 Nigerians to produce the same amount of planet-heating emissions. A single average coal-fired power plant, produces about 4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. These emissions are likely to result in more than 900 heatstroke-related deaths. Eliminating planetary-heating emissions by 2050, can be calculated to save an expected 74 million lives around the world this century. All these mortality numbers are likely to be underestimates. They do, however, signal that carbon emissions are much more costly in human terms than their direct financial impacts. Carbon credits (if we end up using them) will have to be dramatically inflated!

Seeing the Changes 1519

In Loughor, Sneezewort (Achille ptarmica) was in flower. Dog rose (Rosa canina) had ripe hips. A Six-spotted burnet moth (Zygaena filipendulae) flitted.

Giving Recycling a Bad Name?

Biffa, the UK's largest waste company, has been fined £1.5 m (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/30/uk-waste-firm-fined-15m-for-exporting-household-waste). Biffa exported 1000 tonnes of household waste to India and Indonesia. The bags were labelled 'waste paper' but contained 50,000 tins; 40,000 plastic bags; 25,000 items of clothing; 3,000 used nappies and even condoms. This is just plain cheating and is likely to deter people from sorting their household rubbish. Clearly, exporting in this fashion is a health hazard. £1.5 m seems to be a totally minimal fine!

Gene Driven to Extinction?

In 2019, malaria infected almost 230m people world-wide, causing over 400,000 deaths. Everyone knows that the malarial parasite is transmitted by the bite of the female Anopheles gambiae mosquito. She needs the blood to produce her eggs. Most attempts to deal with malaria have focused on the female vector (an organism that transmits a disease). There have been several attempts to use 'gene drive' techniques to wipe out mosquito populations. If the vector disappears, so does the parasite. However, most 'gene drive' attempts have disappeared after a few generations. A recent attempt looks more promising. This has focused on the highly conserved doublesex gene. Sterile male mosquitos that were genetically modified to alter the doublesex gene were released into large indoor cages. The introductions resulted in the female mosquitos becoming infertile, wiping out the populations (no fertile flies were produced). Field trials will now have to be completed. The only possible downside is that mosquitos are food for numbers of wild animals including fish and birds. There are also promising trials of vaccines for the malarial parasite itself. It will be interesting to see which approaches prevail.

Seeing the Changes 1518

The combination of rain and sunshine has resulted in a crop of what look like Conical brittlestems (Psathyrella conopilus), in my Loughor garden.

Walk On By?

The Highway Code is a booklet of rules to be observed by people who use UK roads. The rules apply to pedestrians, cyclists, car drivers and truckers. It has been announced (parliament must be in recess), the code will be altered to put pedestrians at the top of the 'road user hierarchy' (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/30/pedestrians-get-priority-as-uk-unveils-changes-to-highway-code). The Highway Code changes are claimed to be part of a push for people to make 'sustainable travel choices'. The mandatory slogan is making 'air cleaner and cities greener'. This appears a laudable aim but I remain to be convinced that £338m will be sufficient funding to generate the needed changes over the entire country. There are also some questions about the 'hierarchy'. Will pedestrians get priority over ambulances or police cars on call? What about people who can neither walk nor cycle?

The Trashing of the Amazon

Large areas of the Amazon rainforest have already been cleared. Some of these locations have been used to grow soya. Soya is frequently used as cattle feed to boost meat production. Cattle, burp out masses of methane, a very potent 'greenhouse gas' (it has stronger effects than carbon dioxide). The Amazon rainforest is also undersustained attack by President Bolanaro's Ferrograo project (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/28/bolsonaro-amazon-railway-climate-chaos-must-be-stopped). The Ferrograo project is a plan to build a 1000 km rail system, extending through the heart of the rainforest. Trains would pass within 500m of more than 700 officially environmentally-protected areas. Naturally, its construction and operation would cause environmental chaos. Why does President Bolsanaro want the rail line? His project, aims to speed the movement of soya (and other grains) from where they are grown to coastal seaports. Feed can then reach cattle, in the US and other countries, more quickly. The planet can then heat up at a faster speed. The Amazon rainforest would also be effectively destroyed in the process. It takes the phrase 'fiddling, whilst Rome burns', to a whole new level!

Re Cycling?

In the UK, cycle lanes and low traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs) were introduced to improve general health as well as to reduce dangerous emissions from vehicles. Some local councils seem to be removing these provisons, often as a result of noisy objections by a few people. Cycle lanes and LTNs have been popular with majorities of residents. In some locations, these introductions even appear to reduce road traffic accidents. Sometimes, cycle lanes or LTNs are ripped out, before they have even had a chance to prove their worth and/or evidence has been gathered to prove they are not working (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/bike-blog/2021/jul/30/hastily-abandoned-low-traffic-schemes-could-cost-councils-funding). Government is threatening that councils doing this will be risking future government funding. So long as this is done fairly and consistently, it seems a reasonable development.

Not Even in Our Own Backyard?

British Petroleum (BP) and Shell are retreating from oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. This is presumably because they have now come under public scrutiny by shareholders. The petroleum giants have also been threatened with law cases by environmentalists. The Common Wealth thinktank and research by the climate journal Desmog have revealed that more than a third of North Sea licence blocks have now been acquired by private or state-backed controlling interests (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/29/foreign-control-of-north-sea-oil-licences-threatens-uks-net-zero-goal). Firms from China, Russia and the Middle East are now playing dominant roles in North Sea oil and gas exploration. This will make it very difficult for the Oil and Gas Authority to achieve a rapid and fair transition to a low carbon economy on behalf of the UK. Predictably, BP and Shell sold their licence blocks, whilst they could still make money. The UK will now find it very difficult to control 'greenhouse gas' emissions in its own backyard.

Invasives!

A study has revealed that, since the mid 1970s, invasive species of animals and plants have cost the UK economy at least £5bn (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/29/invasive-species-have-cost-the-uk-at-least-5bn-since-1970s-study-reveals-aoe). The invasives can alter entire ecosystems, endangering native species. Some can also cause structural damage to buildings, clog waterways, kill lots of native trees and ruin crops. The three most costly species are thought to be the European rabbit, Japanese knotweed and the Rock pigeon. Worryingly, we only have good information on the financial costs of 42 of the current 520 UK invasives. Some, like Japanese knotweed and the Grey squirrel, were introduced deliberately but others arrive on or in imported goods. Biosecurity is really important. It's not an optional extra.

Seeing the Changes 1517

In Gorseinon, lots of Meadowsweet (Filipendula ulmaria) and alien Himalayan balsam (Impatiens glandulifera).

Your Bunker Isn't Ready Yet, Sir?

Billionaires are buying bunkers in New Zealand as a hedge against societal collapse. A study in the journal Sustainability, started from the position that human civilisation is 'in a perilous state' due to its highly interconnected and energy intensive nature. Its authors looked for 'lifeboat' locations, that could potentially 'ride out the storm'. Countries were ranked on their 1) ability to grow food for their population; 2) ease of closing their borders to mass migration; 3) having some manufacturing capacity and 4) ability to maintain an electrical grid. The countries best-suited to survive, relatively intact, were New Zealand, Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland. These are all islands in temperate regions. Having a low population was also clearly an advantage (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/28/new-zealand-rated-best-place-to-survive-global-societal-collapse). New Zealand's evident 'lifeboat' potential was hardly unexpected. The country has a modest population and lots of agricultural land. It proved its ability to close its borders in the Covid19 pandemic. New Zealand can also take energy from both geothermal and hydroelectric sources. The UK's positive ranking was less expected. It has a relatively large population, producing only about 55% of the food needed to feed its people. The UK has another feature that would make it a 'leaky lifeboat'. A report by its Metereological Office and climate scientists in the International Journal of Climatology says that much of its existing infrastructure cannot deal with extreme weather events ((https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/29/extreme-weather-will-be-the-norm-and-uk-is-not-prepared-report-warns). In the UK, 2020 was the 3rd warmest, 5th wettest and 8th sunniest on record. It was the first year ever to feature in the top ten, on all three measures. Extreme weather events are predicted to become the norm. Rising sea levels and intense storms make flooding much more likely. Drainage could be dramatically improved. High temperatures currently buckle existing rail lines and cause electricity cables to sag. Tar mac roads melt. The UK clearly needs to make its infrastructure more extreme weather resistant (as do others). They could also put more effort into countering the effects of climate change and making pandemics less likely. The country seems, however, unwilling to give up any of its interconnectivity or its energy intensiveness. If human civilisation collapses, things are going to be horrendous even in the 'bunkers' (including the ones that are oven ready)!

Seeing the Changes 1516

In Bynea, Bramble (Rubus fruticosus) fruit ripening nicely. The Gatekeeper butterflies (Pyronia tithonus) were also out in force. In Loughor, there were finally a few Red admiral (Vanessa atalanta) customers for the Butterfly bush.

Seeing the Changes 1614

Another sprinter on the Bynea cycle track.

The Queen's Gambit

The UK Queen is one of the biggest landowners in Scotland. Her lawyers used the obscure Queen's Consent device, to get early sight of a proposed change to Scottish law. They consequently lobbied ministers to have the Queen excluded from legislation, designed to cut carbon emissions from properties (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/28/queen-secretly-lobbied-scottish-ministers-climate-law-exemption ). As a result, the Queen is the only person in the country not required to facilitate the construction of pipelines on her property to heat buildings using renewable energy. It's not as if she couldn't afford to have the work done! The decision seems short-sighted and wrong.

Futures?

In several parts of our planet, record temperatures over extended periods (with horrendous consequences), have dominated the news. New, sophisticated computer models predict that heatwaves like these will become much more frequent in the future (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/26/record-shattering-heat-becoming-much-more-likely-says-climate-study). The computer models predict record-busting heatwaves will be between 2 and 7 times more likely over the next 3 decades. There is little we can do about that. The models predict that dangerous heatwaves will be between 3 and 21 times more likely from 2051 to 2080. This is, unless carbon dioxide levels (and other 'greenhouse gases') are substantially reduced now. We could do something about this. Not that there is much sign of a concerted effort. Worryingly, the models also suggest that the areas most at risk of periodic overheating, are the highly populated regions of North America, Europe and China.

"Please Sir. Can I Have Less?"

A report in the journal Bioscience, reveals that many key indicators of the global climate crisis are worsening. The indicators appear to be either approaching or have already exceeded 'tipping points' (situations, where it has become almost impossible to reverse the trend) as our planet heats up. A major lesson of the Covid19 pandemic seems to be that, even with substantially frozen transportation and consumption, reductions are insufficient to counter the climate crisis (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/27/global-heating-critical-measures-tipping-point-study). The report notes that over half the planetary vital signs are currently heading in the wrong direction. These include atmospheric 'greenhouse gas' concentrations, heat content of the oceans and the mass of ice. The reduction of activities over the Covid19 pandemic actually resulted in negligible reductions in carbon dioxide release. Methane and nitrous oxide (other 'greenhouse gases') both set new year-to-date records in 2020 and 2021. It is notable that ruminant livestock (largely cattle and sheep) now exceeds 4 billion. These methane-emitters, have a biomass that is greater than all humans and wild animals (I think they mean Mammals) combined. Most people, even those concerned about the climate crisis, fail to understand the magnitude of the required changes needed to slow or reverse this planetary heating. This will be a very difficult 'sell'.

So, the Pandemic in England is Over?

After dier predictions of 100-200 k+ new Covid infections per week in England after 'Freedom Day', there is excited speculation after apparent weekly declines in this measure. There were circa 54.5 k new infections on the 17th of July. These had fallen to almost 25 k, by the 26th July. This is an almost 20% week-on-week decline (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/what-is-behind-the-latest-fall-in-cases-of-covid-across-the-uk). Some people suggest we may have reached 'herd immunity'. Around 90% of the population now have blood Covid antibody titres. That would reduce transmissions. Others have asked whether the school holidays are playing a role. The end of term, reduces close contact between pupils. It also lowers testing. Yet others suggest that the 'pingdemic' might have an influence. Young adults are less likely to be vaccinated but are more likely to be infected with Covid19. This cohort also seems to be keener to delete the NHS Covid app from their mobiles. This combination would reduce the chances of any new infection, in younger adults, being recorded. It has also been suggested that the Euros soccer competition, had an influence. Infection numbers rose in England over the competition, especially in 15-44 year old males. Many fans, watched the matches. Those who did it away from Wembley (a pretty crowded location), did so in poorly-ventilated homes and pubs. The recent apparent decline could be a fall from the values elevated by the Euros (now well finished). Naturally, people have also suggested that the summer weather might partly account for the fall. Good weather encourages people to operate out of doors, reducing aerosol transmission. The really important thing to say is that any weekly total of Covid infections should be treated with the utmost caution. Many factors interact to change these numbers. We will not know whether numbers have peaked, until several weeks after the event itself.

Seeing the Changes 1613

In Bynea, the Rhagonycha fulva were mating.

Ping Pong?

In the UK, many people have downloaded a National Health Service (NHS) Covid app on their mobile. The app 'pings', when that device contacts (via bluetooth) the mobile of someone who has tested positive for Covid19. In that case, the 'pinged' individual is instructed to isolate for 10 days. The intention is to reduce viral transmission. Sections of government, media and business are now complaining that the 'pingdemic' (a surge in the number of people being instructed to isolate), is disrupting many crucial sectors. Removing 'key personnel' is said to imperil emergency services, transport, deliveries and even the restacking of supermarket shelves. Business folk and others are demanding government makes exemptions to the isolation requirement. A limited number have already been granted. The claim is that this will allow 'key workers' to carry on working. Such individuals only have to isolate when they return home, at the end of the working day. Stephen Reicher (a member of the SAGE subcommittee, advising on behavioural science) says the 'pingdemic' is simply a distraction from the real problem (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/26/government-pandemic-pingdemic-covid-infections). Reicher notes there were lots of 'pings' on the NHS app, because activity was opened up, in England, on 'Freedom Day'. This was in spite of lots of people having Covid19 infections, especially with the highly transmissible delta variant. Reicher feels that granting exemptions, will inevitably lead to more infections. This will further increase the 'pings', ratcheting up demands for exemptions and so on ad infinitum. The whole thing seems likely to spiral out of control.

Only Around 50 Years With Little or No Action?

In 1972, a group from MIT published The Limits to Growth in which they postulated that we 'needed to act now, to achieve smooth transition and avoid costs' inorder to avoid (environmentally-induced) collapse of civilisation'. The publication sold 30m copies and kicked off concerns about the planet and sustainablity. Purely out of curiosity, sustainability expert, Gaya Herrington, decided to see whether that decades old model was broadly in line with current developments (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth). Herrington has published her evaluation as Beyond Growth online. Sadly, many of the bleaker scenarios in The Limits to Growth appear to be realistic. As Herrington says, the scenarios are not predictions and can be avoided. We just have 50 years less in which to make the transitions. I suspect they will (if they take place in time) neither be smooth nor cheap.

One Forecast We Didn't Need?

It's disturbing that budget airline, Ryanair, is forecasting it will get 100 million passengers, in the present financial year, as it comes out of lockdown (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/26/ryanair-forecasts-100m-passengers-in-financial-year-as-bookings-soar-covid-19). Ryanair specialises in low cost, short-haul flights and its bookings are reportedly 'soaring'. 'Greenhouse gas' emissions will consequently be 'stratospheric', as the flights start. Short haul flights are too cheap (there is currently no tax on fuel). In addition, most carbon dioxide emissions are generated on take-off and landing. The world needs to find ways of reducing cheap, short hauls but they currently makes lots of money for operators.

Multiple Messages on Covid Vaccines to the UK's Younger Age-Groups?

In the UK, there was an initially impressively rapid uptake of vaccines when the process started with older (more vulnerable) people. The speed of this programme seems, however, to be flagging, as it starts to deal with young adults. Some of this slowing could be down to the influence of a plethora of online antivaxx material. A recent extreme example includes a rant by an ex-nurse, comparing NHS medical staff, delivering vaccines, to Nazi war criminals ( https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/met-police-investigate-anti-vaxxer-as-speech-sparks-fears-for-safety-of-medics ). This puts people, working hard to increase public safety, at genuine risk. Some young people have been influenced by antivaxx material on social media. When questioned, some describe the vaccines as 'experimental'. This is even after the well-documented testing prior to release and the fact that 20 million doses have been safely given. Other young reluctants talk about the vaccines being a possible threat to fertility (likely to be a concern in young adults). They say that this aspect as not yet been thoroughly tested. Some young UK vaccine hesitants might consequently have concerns, potentially inflammed by online misinformation. Most appear, however, to be more influenced by a subliminal message (especially in England), they have received from their own government. The economy was reopened on so-called 'Freedom Day', before many young adults had had the vaccine. This was taken as a signal that it's now safe for 18-29 year olds to get Covid, with few consequences (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/24/under-30s-reluctant-to-take-covid-vaccine-cite-fertility-and-side-effect-concerns). Young UK adults have accepted as a truism that they have less to fear from a Covid infection, than the 'old folk'. This now seems reflected in declining rates of jab uptakes with the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Only around 58% of 18-29 year olds have elected to have a first vaccine dose. Take up appears especially low in cities. In Birmingham, Leicester, Liverpool and Manchester, fewer than 50% of young adults have taken up an offered vaccine. This is in spite of a dramatic rise in Covid cases for people in their 20's. Most 18-30 year olds have little sense of threat from a Covid infection. Young adults seem 'relaxed' about getting jabbed and many 'vaccine hesitants' are prepared to 'wait and see'. Perhaps this is what government really wants? If so, I'm not convinced it's a good idea.

Seeing the Changes 1612

Moth trapped in Loughor last night. A much reduced catch. There were 6 Willow beauty (Peribatoides rhomboidaria), along with numerous micros. There were single examples of Dot moth (Melanchra persicariae) and Buff arches (Habrosyne pyritoides). The only new species, for the year, was a male, second generation, Early thorn (Seleria dentata).

Yet Another Species!

It has now been reported that an unvaccinated Snow leopard at San Diego zoo has contracted a Covid19 infection (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/snow-leopard-coronavirus-san-diego-zoo-us-ramil). Another species to add to the list. Many mammalian species (primates, cats and mustellids) are all commonly infected by the virus. In zoos, animals generally get the disease from their handlers. Even if Sars-CoV-2 is eliminated in humans (very unlikely), it could persist in animal populations.

It Doesn't Work Like That?

The UK PM was probably influenced by an 'anti-lockdown paper' from Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, when making his now notorious WhatsApp quip. He said "I must say I have been slightly rocked by some of the data on Covid fatalities. The median age is 82-81 for men and 85 for women. That is above life expectancy. So get Covid and live longer" (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/20/boris-johnsons-quip-get-covid-live-longer-an-echo-of-oxford-study). David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters (respectively from the Winton Centre for Risk, Cambridge and the Royal Statistical Society) lead the Classics graduate gently through the genesis of the basic error (https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jul/24/get-covid-and-live-longer-no-it-doesnt-work-like-that). Spigelhalter and Masters reveal that 'Boris' confuses 2 different kinds of average (a median and a mean). The median age at death from Covid measure, is the middle-ranked value for the range. The life expectancy value is a mean value, obtained by adding together all the ages at death for a large population and dividing that total by the number of people in the sample. Life expectancy actually improves as an individual ages. They have, in effect, avoided earlier causes of death. For example, once a man reaches 79, his life expectancy, in the UK, currently rises to about 88 (something to look forward to?). What the figures actually show is that the risk factors for dying from Covid are remarkably similar to those of dying from something else. The virus consequently acts as a multiplier for other lethal risks. Every Covid death actually results in a mean average loss of 10 years of life. As Spigelhalter and Masters note, the people who died of Covid were certainly not at 'death's door' when they died. Presumably, they don't teach the difference between medians and means to Classics students? The difference should, however, be obvious to anyone purporting to speak for a 'Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine'. It seems to me that people have been playing fast and loose with the numbers.

Just Don't Call it a 'Vaccine Passport'!

The dominant (certainly in the UK) Covid delta variant has created a whole new ball game (as they say). Hoards of Brits (as well as others) are now descending on holiday locations across Europe. The delta variant is much more transmissible than the 'parent' virus. If no restrictions (face masks, social distancing and lockdowns) are in place, a patient with the original virus (from China) will pass the disease on to an average of 2.5 other folk. Under the same circumstances, a carrier of the delta variant transmits their virus to between 6 and 7 other people. This increased threat has resulted in many EU countries making proof of vaccination mandatory for many activities (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/europe-clamps-down-amid-fears-over-rapid-spread-of-delta-variant). Proof of vaccination can be required to enter an art gallery, a bar, a cinema, a disco, a gym, a museum or a restaurant. The requirements vary from country to country. They often apply, however, to both tourists and locals. The term 'vaccine passport' is assiduously avoided as it has become 'incendary'. Basically, people need a vaccine passport to do any of the things, making a holiday a worthwhile experience!

Seeing the Changes 1611

Water mint (Mentha aquatica) in bloom in Bynea.

Long Distance Information?

In the US, the political factors seem to be creating real problems for the Covid vaccination programme. Substantial numbers of unvaccinated Americans are now getting the delta variant of Covid19. This is well-illustrated by a report from Methodist University Hospital in Memphis, Tennesee (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/24/tennessee-coronavirus-covid-delta-variant-cases-vaccines). In that hospital, Covid19 admissions have more than doubled in the last 3 weeks. Many of the patients are much younger, than was the case earlier in the pandemic. Only 38% of Tennessee residents are fully vaccinated (some other southern states are even lower). Local politicians often appear more intent on scoring cheap points or pandering to their base, than keeping their population safe. Tennessee's respected medical Head of the Immunization Program resigned, after being attacked for encouraging young people to get vaccinated. It is dispiriting that on a US-wide basis, only 16% of currently unvaccinated folk, say they will get the vaccine (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/jul/23/us-coronavirus-cases-vaccines-delta-variant-cdc-republicans-us-politics-latest). Politics seems to be the main factor determining if people agree to be jabbed. Fox News belatedly backed Covid vaccines but some of its key 'personalties', continue to cast doubt on the safety and the efficacy of vaccines (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/23/fox-news-covid-vaccination-tucker-carlson). To return to Tennessee, a popular radio host there, doubted and mocked Covid vaccines. He has now has been hospitalised with the virus. His family are urging his listeners to get the jab (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/24/tennessee-radio-host-phil-valentine-doubted-mocked-vaccines-covid-hospital-vaxman ). This seems to be what happens, when an essentially medical decision, becomes an item in an entertainment/advertising process, chasing clicks and likes?

I See No Herd!

SAGE advisor Robert West (University College of London) thinks relaxing of all current UK Covid restrictions is designed 'to get as many people infected as possible' (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims). UK ministers deny they have returned to the 'herd immunity' idea. Herd immunity is a state reached by a population, where a disease has a very low transmission rate, because most of its people are immune to the bacterium or virus. Immunity can, of course, be conferred by vaccination or by contracting the infection. West suggests that throwing open nightclubs and other crowded, close contact, poorly ventilated venues without testing in England this summer, appears designed to 'top up' antibody levels in younger cohorts. Younger people are more likely to visit nightclubs, gigs etc. Young people have also been, because they are less prone to be severely affected by a Covid infection, less likely to come forward for vaccinations. The UK PM says that 'Covid passports' (proof of vaccination) will be needed for entry to nightclubs etc but only from the end of September. One interpretation is that, in spite of government denials, this is part of an attempt to reach 'herd immunity' before next winter. Other possibilities are:- that government wants a) to make 'economic hay' whilst the sun shines; b) steer young people towards vaccination, in preparation for 'Covid passports' and/or c) give the young an opportunity to work off their frustations, before later (currently denied) re-impositions of Covid restrictions. The substantial downside of this 'policy', is that each infection gives the virus more opportunities to produce new variants. It's a bit like increasing the number of viral incubators in a laboratory. Ensure, however, that any telescope is held to the blinded eye!

Unfortunately, Total Jobs May Not Swing the Argument?

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) calculate that about 18 million people are currently employed world-wide in energy industries. They estimate that, if current climate targets are met, there will be 26 million jobs in energy industries by 2050. This is 8 million extra jobs (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/23/hitting-global-climate-target-could-create-8m-energy-jobs-study-says ). The OECD say this looks like a 'no-brainer'. They note, however, that there would be big increases in renewables with declines in the fossil fuel sector. These are, of course, generally not the same people (in terms of their worker skills and share holders). Furthermore, the fossil fuel sector has very deep pockets and is likely to fight change 'every inch of the way'. Logic will only get us so far!

The Greatest Barrier?

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Culural Organisation (UNESCO) is a political body. Its World Heritage Committee, designates coveted World Heritage Sites. In the same week Liverpool's waterfront was dropped by the World Heritage Committee, the same body agreed not to immediately put Australia's Great Barrier Reef on its 'in danger' list. This was, however, only after a 'global lobbying effort' by Australia (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/23/world-heritage-committee-agrees-not-to-place-great-barrier-reef-on-in-danger-list). The Australians are major producers and exporters of coal and gas. These activities inevitably increase the release of 'greenhouse gas' emissions. Global heating and climate change are major threats (along with pollution) to the Great Barrier Reef. The Australians got early support from oil rich Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, whose delegates sit on the World Heritage Committee (I wonder why?). They also flew a minister by military jet to a number 'potentially helpful countries also with delegates'. Eventually, they enlisted support from sufficient delegates, including those of Hungary, Nigeria and Russia, to block the reef's at risk designation. This may or may not be a temporary reprieve, as UNESCO are asked to send a 'progress report' by February 2023 (Australia wanted longer). Environmental groups have described this outcome as 'a victory for cynical lobbying'. It certainly doesn't augur well for COP26 (the next UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow).

'To See Oursels as Ithers See Us'

Rabbie Burns' 1786 words in 'To A Louse, On Seeing One on a Lady's Bonnet at Church', perfectly captures my response to observations by a visiting 'American cousin'. William Hanage (Harvard University) says "witnessing England's response to Covid at first hand profoundly shocked me" (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/22/england-covid-response-uk-us-delta). We English have always made a great song and dance about our presumed rationality and scientific expertise. At least one Englishman (by birth, if not by residence), is profoundly embarassed by Hanage's observations. The American academic notes that 'incoherent government policy' is allowing the delta variant to run riot. Hanage also states the truism that, if the virus had been largely eliminated, it couldn't infect anyone. Conversely, allowing tens of thousands of new delta variant Covid cases every day, means everyone will be exposed to multiple potential sources of infection. More people, whether vaccinated or not, will inevitably become ill. There will also be more cases of long Covid. Hanage pointedly observes that the UK civilian death toll in the entire Second World War, was less than its pandemic deaths suffered in the last 18 months. Clearly, we have dealt with the pandemic pretty poorly. Boasting about our vaccination programme doesn't hide this fact. It looks as if most of we English have a louse on our hat!

Waning Antibodies

Antibody titres (blood levels) are an imperfect measure of infection risk. Post-vaccination, the body activates other defence mechanisms like the T and B lymphocytes. It is, however, concerning that the University College of London (UCL) Virus Watch Study found substantial declines in antibodies, within weeks of a second Covid vaccination jab (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/22/uk-scientists-back-covid-boosters-as-study-finds-post-jab-falls-in-antibodies). The UCL study monitored antibody titres in more than 600 subjects in their 50s and 60s. Subjects had had 2 doses of either the Oxford/AstraZeneca or the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Differences were noted between the levels of antibodies generated by the two vaccines. More importantly, declines in antibody levels were evident, as early as 6 weeks after the 2nd shot in both cases. In some subjects, titres fell by more than 50% over a 10 week period. The declines in antibodies might be more marked for subjects in their 70s, 80s and 90s (they have 'weaker' immune systems). The scientists advocate Covid booster doses in the Autumn (Fall). No decision has yet been taken on this. Others maintain it is more important to get unvaccinated people across the planet protected.

me, Me, ME!

Aditya Chakrabortty opines that extreme selfishness makes collective responding to social crises, next to impossible (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/22/covid-climate-crisis-politics-individualism). Chakrabortty notes that sensible scientists and politicians advocated similar responses to the coronavirus pandemic and climate breakdown. In essence, their advice, about interventions, was "to go in early, go big and not to pretend you can strike a special deal with a lethal force". Chakrabortty describes how, in his view, the English pandemic response was compromised by people, maintaining they were concerned about their 'freedoms'. He suggests these folk were actually showing extreme individualism (i.e. selfishness). Chakrabortty notes how quickly talk in relation to both crises switched to there being a trade-off between 'lives and livelihoods'. We have already been told that we must 'learn to live with the Covid19 virus' (probably true). Chakrabortty suggests that the advocates of extreme selfishness, will soon say that we have to 'learn to live with climate change'. I fear he may have a point, as extreme individualism appears to be on the rise.

A Not So Irreversible 'Freedom Day'?

The UK PM always maintained that, when 'Freedom Day' arrived in England on the 19th of July, there would be no going back. Only a day later (20th July), the number of new Covid19 cases stands at more than 46.5k and there were almost 100 deaths. These are the highest figures for nearly 4 months. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) are now saying it may be necessary to reintroduce face masks and other restrictions in as little as 3 weeks (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/england-may-have-to-reimpose-covid-rules-in-august-scientists-warn). SAGE say that reimpositions will have to happen, if hospitalisations rise above an anticipated level (from modelling) of 1-2000. In this scenario, even with vaccine protections, there would be 1-200 daily deaths. In mid July (just before 'Freedom Day'), there were already 745 daily hospital admissions. There was an opportunity (not taken) to delay the dropping all restrictions simultaneously. Is this what they call being 'science led'? Some politicians appeared so intent on 'opening up', that the public have become collateral damage in their game of 'chicken'.

Rivers or Waste Removal Channels?

The rivers of the UK are generally in a terrible state. George Monbiot reiterates that rivers are under dual attack from water companies and intensive farming (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/21/britains-rivers-suffocating-industrial-farm-waste). Monbiot gives the river Wye, on the English/ Welsh border, as a typical example. Much of the normal biota of the Wye has been destroyed by the rich organic slop leeching into it from neighbouring intensive chicken farms. I really don't think we should expect anything better, when rivers are used with relative impunity, as organic waste disposal units. Water companies legally discharge raw sewage into rivers when their treatment plants can't cope with rainfall. The same companies sometimes also take too much water from the rivers. The organic run-off from intensive farming (this can involve stock other than chickens), generates algal blooms. Crystal waters are converted into an oxygen-poor, green slime. Many of the river organisms die. Claims about conserving biodiversity are meaningless, if rivers become, de facto, a part of the sewage system.

Bringing Home the Bacon?

World-wide, 9 million people die each year from coronary heart disease (CHD or 'heart attacks'). CHD is caused by a narrowing (due to plaque) of the vessels, supplying oxygenated blood to the heart (arteriosclerosis). Ten percent of the UK population die from CHD. An Oxford University group analysed life-style and medical data from 1.4 million people who were tracked for up to 30 years. The subjects were mostly white adults from Europe or the United States, so other cohorts need to be studied (https://www.theguardian.com/food/2021/jul/21/eating-processed-meat-raises-risk-heart-disease-fifth-bacon ). The Oxford study showed that eating processed meat (like bacon, ham and sausages) increased the risk of CHD by 18%. As little as 50g of bacon, ham or sausages per day was sufficient to bring about this effect. The precise mechanism is uncertain but processed meats are high in saturated fats (increasing harmful low density lipoprotein) and salt (elevating blood pressure). Limiting protein to unprocessed red meat (e.g. beef, lamb and pork). reduced the elevation of CHD risk to 9% (half). There was no link between eating poultry (chicken and turkey) and CHD risk. Poultry meat is lower in saturated fats. The authors of the Oxford study, suggest that people should, at least, reduce their intake of red and processed meat by 75%. This would not only protect their health, it would reduce emissions of 'greenhouse gases', helping to limit climate change. Meat production is a major source of both carbon dioxide and methane! I see that the Food industry in the UK are altruistically objecting to the proposed sugar and salt tax on unhealthy foods because it will add £160 to grocery bills (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/20/sugar-and-salt-tax-will-add-160-a-year-to-uk-grocery-bills-industry-warns ). The food manufacturers maintain that the tax will hit the poorest families hardest. They seem to suggest that poor families should only expect to eat junk foods?

Seeing the Changes 1610

Although it is disappointing, negative information can be quite revealing. I 'run' the same route from Loughor to Penclacwydd and back each day (I'm a boring person). The 8k round trip takes me along the cycle track bordering the Loughor estuary. I pass twice by 6 major accumulations of Butterfly bush (Buddleja davidii) and beds of Common nettles (Urtica dioca). Although I have ocassionally glimpsed Red admirals (Vanessa atalanta) and Small tortoiseshells (Aglais urticae) in flight in 2021, I have seen none feeding (as they usually do) on the Butterfly bush. Only a solitary Comma was briefly spotted doing this. I have also seen no larvae of these butterflies feeding on nettles. The usual butterfly populations seem to be in dire trouble.