Thursday, 8 July 2021

We Follow the Science (But at a Considerable Distance?)

When first talking about 'freedom day' (the lifting of the remaining Covid restrictions in England), the UK PM promised to 'follow the science'. More than 100 International scientists and doctors have now signed a letter in the medical journal Lancet, describing the plan for lifting all restrictions on the 19th July as "dangerous and premature" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/global-experts-urge-boris-johnson-delay-covid-reopening). The people signing the Lancet letter believe the UK government risk leaving a substantial number of people with chronic health problems. These would be largely younger people, developing Long Covid (where the consequences of infection, such as extreme tiredness, can last at least for months). Allowing major increases in infections, also makes it more likely that problematic variants of Sars-CoV-2 will emerge. The signatories believe lifting restrictions should be delayed, until a higher proportion of the population is fully vaccinated. The government seem, however, to have convinced themselves that the 19th of July will be a 'sweet spot'. Their bet is, that lifting the restictions in the summer, will cause fewer problems, than doing it in autumn (fall). The summer period allows more outside activity (where there is less transmission) as well as being a holiday time for schools and universities (so, no sitting in large groups for instruction). Autumn weather is likely to force more people into close, indoor contact. It is also the time of year, when seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases are most common. It seems that you can choose which science to follow. It seems very unlikely that the 19th July date will be changed.

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