So, the Pandemic in England is Over?

After dier predictions of 100-200 k+ new Covid infections per week in England after 'Freedom Day', there is excited speculation after apparent weekly declines in this measure. There were circa 54.5 k new infections on the 17th of July. These had fallen to almost 25 k, by the 26th July. This is an almost 20% week-on-week decline (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/26/what-is-behind-the-latest-fall-in-cases-of-covid-across-the-uk). Some people suggest we may have reached 'herd immunity'. Around 90% of the population now have blood Covid antibody titres. That would reduce transmissions. Others have asked whether the school holidays are playing a role. The end of term, reduces close contact between pupils. It also lowers testing. Yet others suggest that the 'pingdemic' might have an influence. Young adults are less likely to be vaccinated but are more likely to be infected with Covid19. This cohort also seems to be keener to delete the NHS Covid app from their mobiles. This combination would reduce the chances of any new infection, in younger adults, being recorded. It has also been suggested that the Euros soccer competition, had an influence. Infection numbers rose in England over the competition, especially in 15-44 year old males. Many fans, watched the matches. Those who did it away from Wembley (a pretty crowded location), did so in poorly-ventilated homes and pubs. The recent apparent decline could be a fall from the values elevated by the Euros (now well finished). Naturally, people have also suggested that the summer weather might partly account for the fall. Good weather encourages people to operate out of doors, reducing aerosol transmission. The really important thing to say is that any weekly total of Covid infections should be treated with the utmost caution. Many factors interact to change these numbers. We will not know whether numbers have peaked, until several weeks after the event itself.