I See No Herd!

SAGE advisor Robert West (University College of London) thinks relaxing of all current UK Covid restrictions is designed 'to get as many people infected as possible' (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims). UK ministers deny they have returned to the 'herd immunity' idea. Herd immunity is a state reached by a population, where a disease has a very low transmission rate, because most of its people are immune to the bacterium or virus. Immunity can, of course, be conferred by vaccination or by contracting the infection. West suggests that throwing open nightclubs and other crowded, close contact, poorly ventilated venues without testing in England this summer, appears designed to 'top up' antibody levels in younger cohorts. Younger people are more likely to visit nightclubs, gigs etc. Young people have also been, because they are less prone to be severely affected by a Covid infection, less likely to come forward for vaccinations. The UK PM says that 'Covid passports' (proof of vaccination) will be needed for entry to nightclubs etc but only from the end of September. One interpretation is that, in spite of government denials, this is part of an attempt to reach 'herd immunity' before next winter. Other possibilities are:- that government wants a) to make 'economic hay' whilst the sun shines; b) steer young people towards vaccination, in preparation for 'Covid passports' and/or c) give the young an opportunity to work off their frustations, before later (currently denied) re-impositions of Covid restrictions. The substantial downside of this 'policy', is that each infection gives the virus more opportunities to produce new variants. It's a bit like increasing the number of viral incubators in a laboratory. Ensure, however, that any telescope is held to the blinded eye!