Monday 26 July 2021

Only Around 50 Years With Little or No Action?

In 1972, a group from MIT published The Limits to Growth in which they postulated that we 'needed to act now, to achieve smooth transition and avoid costs' inorder to avoid (environmentally-induced) collapse of civilisation'. The publication sold 30m copies and kicked off concerns about the planet and sustainablity. Purely out of curiosity, sustainability expert, Gaya Herrington, decided to see whether that decades old model was broadly in line with current developments (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/25/gaya-herrington-mit-study-the-limits-to-growth). Herrington has published her evaluation as Beyond Growth online. Sadly, many of the bleaker scenarios in The Limits to Growth appear to be realistic. As Herrington says, the scenarios are not predictions and can be avoided. We just have 50 years less in which to make the transitions. I suspect they will (if they take place in time) neither be smooth nor cheap.

1 comment:

Paul Brain said...

I was hoping that, if planetary collapse occurred, I would miss it. It seems, however, that, without intervention, things will fall apart around 2040. Sadly, I might (just) still be around at that time?

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