Wednesday 28 July 2021

Futures?

In several parts of our planet, record temperatures over extended periods (with horrendous consequences), have dominated the news. New, sophisticated computer models predict that heatwaves like these will become much more frequent in the future (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/26/record-shattering-heat-becoming-much-more-likely-says-climate-study). The computer models predict record-busting heatwaves will be between 2 and 7 times more likely over the next 3 decades. There is little we can do about that. The models predict that dangerous heatwaves will be between 3 and 21 times more likely from 2051 to 2080. This is, unless carbon dioxide levels (and other 'greenhouse gases') are substantially reduced now. We could do something about this. Not that there is much sign of a concerted effort. Worryingly, the models also suggest that the areas most at risk of periodic overheating, are the highly populated regions of North America, Europe and China.

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