Exit Wave Confusions

Anna Leach graphically (or histogramically?) presents Covid vaccination data on the UK population on England's 'Freedom day' (19th July). The government undertook not to remove restrictions, until the vaccine had been 'offered to all adults'. Strictly speaking, the UK government have fulfilled their promise. There is, however, a big difference between being 'offered' the vaccine and being fully vaccinated. For the best immunity, individuals need to get both injections of the vaccine and wait 2-3 weeks. So, would you buy a second-hand car from these guys? In actuality, only 68% of UK adults are now fully vaccinated. The figure declines to around 54%, if people under 18 are added to the 'adult' total. Most people accept that vaccines will not be a complete answer to the pandemic but they clearly help reduce hospitalisations and death (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/are-enough-people-vaccinated-in-time-for-englands-freedom-day). Leach also illustrates how difficult it is going to be for the general public to use their judgement on assessing risk (even experts find this hard). The scientists can't agree. Christina Pagel (Director of University College of London's Clinical Operational Research Unit) clearly feels that 'Freedom day' has come too soon. She thinks there should have been no unlocking, until all adults had been fully vaccinated and over 12's offered 2 doses. Pagel says there is no downside, to having as many people vaccinated as possible before opening up. She also thinks vaccines, must be supplemented by public health measures. These might include the wearing of face masks, contact tracing and heavily investing in ventilation. The very different views of Paul Hunter (University of East Anglia) are also presented. He says a surge in cases was always likely, whenever restrictions were lifted. Hunter is impressed by the reduction in hospitalisations, produced by the vaccination programme. He is dubious about waiting for more vaccinations feeling that immunity may wane with time. Hunter's response to the truism, that we cannot vaccinate our way out of Covid, is that we need natural infections to 'top up' immunity. This seems back to the 'herd immunity' idea. He argues (like the government) that it is safer to axe restrictions now, when the most vulnerable have their highest antibody titres. So 'Freedom day' on the 19th July is fine. Somewhat optimistically (in my view), Hunter thinks that, within a few years, Covid19 infections will be like the Common cold or even be asymptomatic. How are the general public supposed to make sense of this? I suspect they will simply latch on to whichever view reflects their predispositions.