50:50

A report led by Kevin Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester University) advocates an 'equitable' transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Doing this, the report suggests, means giving rich countries (e.g. Australia, the UK and the US) until 2034, to end all oil and gas production. The poorer countries, who are more dependent on fossil fuels, the report says, should be given until 2050 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/mar/22/rich-countries-must-stop-producing-oil-and-gas-by-2034-says-study). The Anderson-led report presumably assumes that the use of coal has already ceased or will terminate shortly (untrue?). A total cessation of fossil fuel use by the specified dates will, the report estimates, give humanity a 50% chance of preventing devastating climate breakdown. This is the same as tossing a coin. That is pushing humanity's luck. Wouldn't it be appropriate to aim for rather better odds?