Wednesday, 8 June 2022

Is the End of the Covid19 Pandemic Nigh?

There have been a spate of politicians on BBC TV, telling Brits that the covid19 pandemic is 'over'. Aris Katzourakis (Oxford University) is much more knowledgable than these windbags ((https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/01/covid-pandemic-end-vaccinated-countries-disease). Katzourakis poses the question 'Is the Covid pandemic finally nearing its end?'. He suggests that an 'end' will certainly not occur in 2022. Katzourakis feels, however, that the behaviour of Sars-CoV-2 in highly vaccinated countries (like the UK) may offer a glimpse of what an endpoint might look like. There is now clearly a low risk of severe disease, from any given infection. In spite of this, Katzourakis says we will need a better understanding of the cumulative disease toll of reinfections (these are likely to be regular). He also thinks we will get some idea of the liklihood of further Omicron-like immune escape events. New vaccination strategies may well be needed to deal with these. Fairly obviously, Katzourakis is not at all convinced there will be a clean 'end' to the pandemic. We will be 'living with' the virus.

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