Saturday, 10 September 2022

Tipping Points

A 'tipping point' is a change going beyond a place, where it can be reversed. Scientists have identified 16 tipping points for the Earth's climate. They have also estimated the level of anthropogenic (human-caused) global heating required make each irreversible (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/08/world-on-brink-five-climate-tipping-points-study-finds). Worryingly, they conclude that, at the current 'mere' 1.1 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels, we are 'on the brink' of 5 tipping points. These are 1. collapse of Greenland's ice cap; 2. collapse of the West Atlantic ice sheet; 3. Tropical coral reef die off; 4. an abrupt thaw of Northern permafrost and 5. ice loss in the Barent's sea. Rather obviously, these 5 tipping points would have very major impacts on sea level, rainfall patterns, agriculture etc. Optimists predict that we might be able to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels. If we were able to do this, 2 more tipping points would fall like dominos. There would be 1. collapse of the Labrador Sea current and 2. mountain glaciers would be lost. Less optimistic folk can't see global heating being limited to less than 2 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels. Inspite of this, politicians and fossil fuel companies act as if reducing 'greenhouse gas' emissions is a) optional and b) can always be put off until 'tomorrow'. They have actually been doing this for decades!

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